‘Minus One’ formula and the MQM

“Minus One formula” in Pakistani politics has failed in the past for the simple reason that our politics revolved around personalities, charisma and legacy. Political parties with roots in the masses need to be defeated politically. Pakistan People’s Party, PPP, could not be defeated when attempts were made for “minus Bhutto” and “minus Benazir” formula. Now, it may not be workable in MQM either. At the same time, it’s also high time that MQM founder Altaf Hussain should bring drastic reforms in the party, before it’s too late. Yes, party heads should step down once the party suffered defeat.
There should not be any concept of life chairman and parties need to democratise themselves, but all this is for the party to decide and Election Commission of Pakistan to monitor, but the “formula” should not be imposed and attempts should not be made to create split, as had been the case with all mainstream parties like PPP, PML and MQM.
If democracy is the best revenge, MQM can be tested in the by-election in Azizabad, next month, on the seat vacant by former MQM, MNA, Nabil Gabol, or in the local bodies in September this year. It will be the first test of MQM, after raid at “Nine-Zero,” and also of its political rivals like Jamaat-e-Islami, JI, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, which will also be in the run. The MQM is certainly “down,” but is it also “out”?
Thus, MQM’s political future depends on its politics, for which they first have to come out “clean” from some serious allegations against them, ranging from Dr Imran Farooq’s murder case to money-laundering and scores of cases of extortion, target killings and Baldia factory fire probe. Therefore, it’s very important for the party to face these charges in court. Besides, the leadership themselves knows, where they are wrong and where injustice has been done.
MQM also knows that in the last several years, they have failed in removing such perception about the party. But, it is also true that in Pakistan, perceptions often are stronger than realities. We have a habit of giving verdict before the trial.
From 1988 to 1996, documents comprising thousands of papers were prepared on the allegations against MQM, particularly during PPP two governments and also under PML (N) rule. But, both these parties also formed an alliance with MQM during all these years.
MQM always have “love and hate” relationship with the Establishment since it converted from student party to political party in 1984. Its opponents accused that it’s the product of the Establishment to counter PPP in Sindh, the charge which MQM leadership always denied.
From 1991 till 2002, MQM mostly became the target of different operations against the alleged criminals, whether it’s Army, Rangers or police. During all these periods, premier intelligence agencies played crucial rather controversial role.
Some of the most gruesome massacres in Sindh remained mysterious till this day and fingers have often been pointed out towards “invisible hands” – be they Hyderabad massacre in 1988, in which 250 people died, Pucca Qila, from Sohrab Goth Qasba, Ali Garh or killings of top political and religious leaders in Karachi. The fact remained that “truth” about Karachi violence remained a big “casualty.”
MQM relationship with intelligence agencies became “strain” after the last major split in the party in 1991, when two of its most powerful leaders: Afaq Ahmad and Aamir Khan, left the party or were sacked. It was for the first time MQM leadership accused the Establishment for trying to break the party after their back to back victories in 1987 local bodies and 1988 and 1990 elections. Aamir later returned to MQM, and at present in Ranger’s custody.
MQM was not part of anti-PPP alliance, Islami Jamhoori Ittehad, IJI, which was the brainchild of former ISI chief, retired Lt General Hameed Gul. But, it faced the allegation of siding with IJI in the vote of confidence against former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto.
MQM became part of Combined Opposition Alliance, COP, led by late Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, which also included all anti-PPP parties prior to 1990 elections. It’s now been an established fact how the Establishment planned those elections to defeat Benazir Bhutto.
Thus, from the days of General Ziaul Haq, minus Bhuttos and minus PPP formulas were tried and failed till the elder Bhutto was hanged, another killed, one died mysteriously and finally Benazir herself killed in a suicide attack.
Anyone who really needs to understand the violence in Karachi from 1980 to 2015, must study how politics in Karachi was criminalised and “who and who,” were responsible. How the culture of extortion was introduced and the mystery of extrajudicial killings? Now, whether the current operation will remain above politics or would not be a real test for our security forces and intelligence agencies.
Establishment and MQM, came close to each other after 9/11, when in 2002, some of the major demands of MQM were accepted by former army chief, retired General Pervez Musharraf.
These include, (1) its rival MQM (H) activities would be stopped, which led to the dismantling of its headquarters in Landhi, as MQM had accused the Establishment for making Haqiqi, which Afaq Ahmad denied; and (2) A power sharing formula in Sindh. Under this pact, governor of Sindh would not only be from MQM, but would practically be given the administrative control of Karachi and Hyderabad. The longest serving governor, Dr Ishratul Ebad enjoyed equal power during 2002 to 2007.
(3) Special development package for uplift of Karachi and Hyderabad.
After these demands were accepted, MQM supported Musharraf-backed Sindh government and became part of the ruling coalition.
Thus, MQM alone can’t be blamed for May 12, 2007, when the then Establishment led by Musharraf used all its resources and power to counter the lawyers’ movement for restoration of former chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
During all this period, from 1988 till 2013, when MQM and Establishment continued to have “love and hate” relationship, MQM only once lost major elections, i.e. in 2002, when religious parties alliance, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, MMA, won seven seats from Karachi and one from Hyderabad. In all other elections, MQM swept in urban Sindh.
Benazir Bhutto’s assassination followed by Musharraf’s retirement as army chief and resignation as president, the MQM still won 2008 elections and joined coalition with PPP, first since 1988, PPP-MQM accord.
Former president, Asif Ali Zardari’s handling of MQM was much better than Benazir, but it got a dent because of Dr Zulfiqar Mirza factor, which once again made MQM relations with PPP, strain. But, in the end, MQM survived and Mirza quit.
During all these years, MQM’s organisational problems also came on surface and its impact was felt in 2013 elections, when during the General Body meeting at Nine Zero on May 19, senior members of the Rabita Committee faced public criticism about their performance.
Since then, MQM could not recover from its organisational weaknesses despite being the most organised party in the country.
Finally, the mystery of Dr Imran Farooq’s murder and two suspects in the custody of Pakistani intelligence comes. In the last three years since this “speculative story” hit the headlines, when retired General Pasha was the head of ISI, there has never been a single word from the government.
Why has it never been denied or confirmed? Who wanted to use this story and why? If there is a vital evidence available, why has it not been used yet and will it ever be used, if any such suspects are in custody?
Thus, it would not be difficult to understand the dynamic of “Minus One formula” in Pakistani politics and it has failed. Politics of Pakistan has never been “clean,” but are only politicians responsible for this “dirt?” The money factor made it dirtier. If we really want to clean politics from crime and corruption, then it’s very important to learn few lessons from the past. Let the change come through elections, clean up militancy from politics, once for all, but don’t look for “Minus One Formula” or “Minus One” party formula. It will not work. But the parties too have to decide their own fate and should not be a hostage to militancy or conspiracies.
The writer is the senior analyst, columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.