IMF expects inflation to remain high in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of elevated inflationary pressures for the economy and asked the State Bank of Pakistan to continue tightening the monetary stance as well as keeping the market-based exchange rate. The IMF has projected CPI-based inflation of 24 percent on average for the current fiscal year 2023-24 and also projected the inflation to come down to 18 percent by the end of June 2024.

The unemployment rate stood at 8 percent, while the poverty level was 21.9 percent. The WB had projected the poverty level to stand at 40 percent.

“Inflation remains high, affecting particularly the more vulnerable, and it is appropriate that the SBP maintains a tight stance to ensure that inflation returns to more moderate levels. Pakistan also needs a market-determined exchange rate to buffer external shocks and continue rebuilding foreign reserves,” the IMF stated in a press statement following the approval for the release of $700 million installment under the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA).

According to the IMF’s announcement, the IMF Executive Board decision allows for an immediate disbursement of around $700 million to Pakistan.

Continued timely and consistent implementation of program policies remains critical, with no room for slippage. This requires strict adherence to fiscal targets while protecting social spending, a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external shocks, and further progress on structural reforms to support stronger and more inclusive growth.

The Executive Board completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic reform program supported by the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR528 million (around $700 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 1.422 billion (about $1.9 billion).

Pakistan’s 9-month SBA approved by the Executive Board on July 12, 2023, in the amount of SDR2.250 billion (about $3 billion at the time of approval), aims to provide a policy anchor for addressing domestic and external balances and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners.

Macroeconomic conditions have generally improved, with growth of 2 percent expected in FY24 as the nascent recovery expands in the second half of the year. The fiscal position also strengthened in FY24Q1 achieving a primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP driven by overall strong revenues. Inflation remains elevated, although with appropriately tight policy, this could decline to 18.5 percent by end-June 2024.

Gross reserves increased to $8.2 billion in December 2023, up from $4.5 billion in June, while the exchange rate has been broadly stable. The current account deficit is expected to rise to around 1½ percent of GDP in FY24 as the recovery takes hold.

Assuming sustained sound macroeconomic policy and structural reform implementation, inflation should return to the SBP target and growth continue to strengthen over the medium term.

Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, stated, “Pakistan’s program performance under the Stand-By Arrangement has supported significant progress in stabilizing the economy following significant shocks in FY2022-23. There are now tentative signs of activity picking-up and external pressures easing. Continued strong ownership remains critical to ensure the current momentum continues and stabilization of Pakistan’s economy becomes entrenched.

“The authorities’ strong revenue performance in FY24Q1 as well as federal spending restraint have helped to achieve a primary surplus in line with quarterly program targets. However, in the context of pressures, including from provincial spending, efforts at mobilizing revenues and ongoing non-priority spending discipline need to continue to ensure that the budgeted primary surplus and debt goals remain achievable. Going forward, broad-based reforms to improve the fiscal framework—mobilizing additional revenues particularly from non-filers and under-taxed sectors and improving public financial management—are required to create fiscal space for further social and development spending.

“The authorities took challenging steps to bring both electricity and natural gas prices closer to costs in 2023. Continuing with regularly-scheduled adjustments and pushing cost-side power sector reforms are vital to improving the sector’s viability and protecting fiscal sustainability.

“Inflation remains high, affecting particularly the more vulnerable, and it is appropriate that the SBP maintains a tight stance to ensure that inflation returns to more moderate levels. Pakistan also needs a market-determined exchange rate to buffer external shocks, continue rebuilding foreign reserves, and support competitiveness and growth. In parallel, further action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and, more broadly, vigilance over the financial sector is necessary to support financial stability.

“Boosting jobs and inclusive growth in Pakistan requires continuing protection of the vulnerable through BISP and accelerating structural reforms, most notably around improving the business environment and leveling the playing field for investors, advancing the SOE reform agenda and safeguards related to the Sovereign Wealth Fund; strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions; and building climate resilience.”