PTI’s Punjab dilemma

The PTI has landed itself in a fine dilemma – how to manage Punjab through its alliance with the PML-Q. Both parties need each other but the differences between them are so very stark. It would not be unthinkable for the PTI to be seeing Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi’s ‘friendship’ more as a costly embrace. He has now, per media reports, managed to somehow convince the PTI that he will not take the vote of confidence despite the PTI’s insistence that he should go for the vote before the Lahore High Court (LHC) hearing on January 11 in the case pertaining to his de-notification. Elahi was adamant that he would not take the vote of confidence and had apparently even warned the PTI in no uncertain terms that its leadership should refrain from giving irresponsible statements in this regard. The PTI was reportedly also reminded of the crackdown launched by the PMLN-led Punjab government back in May 2022 when the party had decided to go for its [first] long march.

Such ‘advice’ by Elahi is not lost on anyone – or at least should not be. The PTI would do well to remember just how important it is to have a government in Punjab, something Imran and his party seem to keep forgetting when they come up with impulsive ideas like dissolving provincial assemblies. Even before Imran had announced the dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies, Elahi had reportedly tried to convince him otherwise since these two provincial governments give the PTI an edge when it comes to bargaining, as well as afford Imran protection apart from preventing his arrest. But, going by his temperament, Imran still went ahead with his announcement. Political observers had at that time also predicted that he would not be successful in his plan as people within his party and the PML-Q were not in favour of this decision. Observers say that due to a court case and the PDM’s options to either ask the Punjab CM for a vote of confidence again or file a no-trust motion, the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly is now on an indefinite hold. This suits all quarters – the PML-Q, the PML-N, and ‘other stakeholders’.

Another not-so-minor point of difference between the two parties, the PTI and PML-Q, has been their reaction to the Wazirabad JIT probing the assassination attempt on Imran Khan. Even now when the PTI complains that it could not register the FIR it wanted with some important names in a province it ruled because of pressure from powerful quarters and has blamed everyone under the sun except its own chief minister. The reason is simple: the PTI has no choice. If it puts too much pressure on the PML-Q, the party will have to lose the Punjab government and the PML-N will again benefit. Instead of an own goal, the PTI is sticking to the PML-Q so that the Punjab government survives. So far Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi has prevailed over the PTI but it can also lead to some frustration within the PTI leadership – they’re in power in Punjab but not powerful in Punjab since real power resides with the CM who is of a whole other party. If this confuses us, imagine what it does to the PTI. However, there are speculations that the PML-N would not want to go into the general elections without the Punjab government and would want to be back in power before the next elections take place. Whether it makes a move before the local government elections in Punjab or after is not yet clear. Punjab remains a battlefield.