The census delay

There is a reason why the last census in Pakistan was held in 1998 even though we are constitutionally mandated to hold one every 10 years. The largest political parties in the country see no benefit in holding a census because updated population statistics will possibly show a large increase in the population of Karachi, which would benefit the MQM and, to a smaller extent, the ANP. Last year, at a meeting of the Council of Common Interests, the government finally agreed to hold the census in a year and then deliberately  did nothing to prepare for it. Now, the CCI will likely agree to delay the census for six months so that law-enforcement agencies have the time to prepare adequately. An agreement on the date will only be the first step in conducting a census. There needs to be a consensus on methodology as well. The All Parties Conference that discussed the census decided that the provinces should be responsible for conducting their own population counts but this leads to the danger that they will over count their own populations. The MQM, meanwhile, wants all ‘illegal immigrants’ – refugees would be a better word for those who have escaped war from Afghanistan – to be sent back. This is because the Pakhtun immigrants tend to be supporters of the ANP.

All said and done, now may be the most politically advantageous time to hold a census. The ruling PML-N’s stronghold in Punjab is so secure that even losing a few seats to the increased population of Karachi will do nothing to dent its power. The PPP has become such a marginalised force that it too will neither suffer nor benefit much. But an accurate population count is vital to decide how much money each province should get under the NFC Award and to allocate development funds to areas. The statistics we are currently using are all but useless and so we have to rely on what is essentially educated guesswork. The political posturing that has made conducting a census an impossibility for nearly two decades could also infect the process, as political parties claim their constituencies are undercounted. For this, there needs to be a credible avenue for appeal in the form of the judiciary. The rules devising this should have been drawn up following the CCI meeting last year. Now it will have to be done in a rush. But no one should be allowed to deliberately push this exercise any further away.