Why ‘Operation Sindh’ dropped?

Whoever had advised Prime Minister Imran Khan and briefed him about the possible success of ‘Operation Sindh’ caused major embarrassment not only to the PM but also to the PTI. So why it was planned in the first place and the PTI looked in a hurry just on the basis of a JIT report on ‘money-laundering’ involving former president Asif Ali Zardari, his sister Faryal Talpur and son Bilawal Bhutto. What happened in the Supreme Court Monday was yet another embarrassment for the federal government.

With all is not well for Zardari family in the light of the JTI report and its follow up, but it was premature operation on part of the PTI government. The PPP in elections on July 25 had even won from the areas they had lost in the past.

On the other hand, the PTI leadership relied heavily on GDA, as the leaders and parties in the alliance had been tested but could not make inroads in Sindh to challenge the PPP in the elections.

The operation was dropped after the Supreme Court’s directives to the government to review the names of 172 persons put on the ECL, which include the name of Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah besides Zardari’s family.

In the end, better sense prevailed following developments in the SC, and the planned operation was dropped though some PTI leaders said it’s being deferred for some other time.

It was a non-starter from the beginning as even if what happened in the apex court Monday had not happened, the PTI would have faced embarrassment as in the past such exercise only succeeded with the active participation of non-political forces, which in this case were not on board.

On the other hand, the PPP with the support of the PML-N and others could have made counter offensive and they could have a better chance if one go by the numbers and strength of the PTI in the Centre and Punjab.

There was every chance of massive ‘horse trading’ from both sides and as a result could have created political uncertainty. The PTI itself knows that the PPP government in Sindh is in a much comfortable position than the PTI at the Centre and in Punjab. Secondly, in horse trading no one could beat Zardari.

It would have been the repeat of 90s politics of the era of the PPP and the PML-N and it would have damaged the PTI and PM Imran Khan as it negates his basic political narrative. Secondly, it would have threatened his government at the Centre and in Punjab.

On the contrary, the PTI hardly have any leader who has such a vast experience of such tactics and that is why the task was given to Ali Gohar Mehr and some GDA leaders. Despite having the services of some former chief ministers like Arbab Ghulam Rahim and Liaquat Jatoi, with some veterans of Functional Muslim League, they too know the timing to overthrow Sindh government was not suitable nor they got the line from any other circle. Therefore, Pir Pagaro advised the GDA and the PTI to drop the efforts.

Zardari has firm grip on the party and the Sindh government and sources said had the PTI launched ‘Operation Sindh’, he has also done his homework for counter offensive as the PPP leaders believed that they had more options than the PTI.

It would have started with the vote of no-confidence against Senate chairman, and Zardari was ready to win over the PML- Q, the MQM-P and Sardar Akhtar Mengal’s Balochistan National Party.

Had the PTI waited for few months and for the final outcome of the JIT, like the arrest of Zardari and others named in the report, ground situation could have suited them as their 8 to 10 PPP MPAs could have switched over once they saw the fate of the party’s top leaders.

Although the hearing in the SC on Monday gave a sigh of relief to the PPP and Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, they are still not out of the woods and some of their top leaders could be arrested.

Sources said the PPP top leadership also knows that thing can go from bad to worst in the coming weeks and months and are working on post-JIT strategy. The chief minister can take fresh vote of confidence from the Sindh Assembly. On the other hand, the PPP could also nominate his replacement but only if he is arrested.

In such a scenario the PTI could re-launch ‘Operation Sindh, but would be satisfied in case of a replacement of Murad Ali Shah comes from within the PPP. The party has two-third majority in Sindh and the PTI needs at least 20 more MPAs to reach a magic figure.

As soon as the JIT report was first leaked to the media and then submitted and even displayed in the court, the PTI leadership thought it was all over for Zardari and Sindh government.

Perhaps the decision of putting all the persons named in the JTI on the ECL without even giving a second thought or seeking court’s advice caused embarrassment to the government, both in the SC and on political front.

The PTI government perhaps thought it’s the fall of Sindh government and difficult for Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah to survive and they immediately started political maneuvering through Governor Imran Ismail.

As soon as the federal cabinet decided to put the names of all 172 on the ECL, in the light of the JIT report, the Sindh chapter of the PTI got active through Sindh governor. Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry, who was about to leave for Karachi, as part of the mission ‘Operation Sindh’, cancelled his visit as it could have been a disaster for the PTI, even if the SC directives had not come.

The MQM-P, the PTI’s coalition partner has decisive numbers in Sindh, kept distance from the PTI move and could have raised its bargaining position if some serious attempts were made to form anti-PPP coalition government in Sindh.

Prime Minister Imran Khan also realised that wrong message had gone to Sindh; the way such an exercise was launched first by the PTI Sindh, followed by some federal ministers.

Sources said those on the forefront of the mission included Sindh Governor Imran Ismail, Faisal Vawda, Ali Zaidi, Khurram Sherzaman, Firdous Shamim Naqvi and at a later stage even the PTI leaders from outside Sindh also jumped in like Fawad Chaudhry and Iftikhar Durrani.

It would be better if the PM asks its party’s Sindh chapter to organise for the next elections as the party got only one seat in the local bodies by-polls last month. It is time both the government and Opposition restrain themselves and let all four provincial governments and Centre compete with each other on performance and relief for the people and wait for the change, if any, through legal and constitutional course.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO