The Middle East meltdown

Capital suggestion
The Middle East comprises a total of seventeen countries namely Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the UAE and Yemen.
Of the seventeen at least eleven countries are ‘fragile states’ with “mounting demographic pressures, vengeance seeking group grievances, uneven economic development, progressive deterioration of public services, violation of human rights and rule of law, rise of factionalised elites and intervention of external actors”.
These ‘fragile states’ include Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Red alert: of the seventeen Middle Eastern states at least 60 percent fall in the ‘fragile state’ category.
Of the seventeen at least three are in a state of civil war – Iraq, Syria and Yemen (plus Libya). Red alert: of the seventeen Middle Eastern states at least 20 percent are ‘failed states’. These states have completely failed to provide their citizens with physical or economic security. These states have completely failed to provide their citizens with public services like justice, water and electricity. For the record, no other region of the world has such a high percent of failed states. Of the seventeen only three are considered ‘viable states’ – Iran, Israel and Turkey.
Next. There at least four layers of conflicts going on. First layer: Shia v Sunni whereby Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and Lebanon. Second layer: Sunni v Sunni whereby Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are supporting opposite sides (Turkey and Qatar are both backing Hamas). Third layer: The Islamic State is capitalising on Sunni grievances and bad governance. Fourth layer: Russia is in the game with its 4+1 alliance whereby the nexus includes Syria, Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah plus Russia.
Next. The United States, for the first time in six decades, has become a net exporter of hydrocarbon products – and that has serious geo-political implications especially for the Middle East. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has disclosed that recoverable shale gas reserves in the US have more than doubled from 353 trillion cubic feet to 827 trillion cubic feet – that’s 100 years of supply. Currently, the US is the second-largest producer of natural gas (Russia is the largest). Within the next few years the US could be exporting up to 5 billion cubic feet of LNG per day
To be certain, the ‘shale revolution’ in America has sharply reduced America’s energy-related vulnerabilities to the outside world and that may drive the US to take a more isolationist stance particularly in reference to the Middle East.
The Middle East is melting away like an image of snow and things are going to get far worse before they get better. The pro-Bashar al-Assad camp has Iran and Russia in it. The anti-Bashar al-Assad camp has the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in it. Things will get better only after the five powers – the United States, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran – fight it out and only after equilibrium of some sort is reached.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @saleemfarrukh