LB polls: the first phase

The only surprise as the results of the first phase of the local bodies election in Punjab and Sindh started pouring in on Saturday and Sunday was that there was no surprise. According to the results, the PML-N remains strong in Punjab while the PPP remains strong in Sindh. The local bodies elections can be seen as either a vote of confidence for the performance of the two ruling parties in their respective provinces, or as an indicator that people think that the best local bodies representative is the one most closely aligned with those in power. The second of the factors is likely to have been a significant one after the two provinces legislated for a fairly crippled set of powers for local representatives. The results from 12 districts of Punjab and eight districts in Sindh have put the PML-N and PPP with commanding leads over other political parties but a closer inspection of the actual seat counts shows a different picture. The PML-N secured 1,049 out of 2,696 seats in Punjab with the PTI getting 251 seats. However, the interesting number from the province was the 912 seats in the province won by independent candidates. Sindh was a different story with the PPP winning the majority of local bodies seats – 596 seats – but independent candidates polled second with 142 seats. The PTI is extremely weak in Sindh, winning only four seats. This arguably shows that independent candidates are as strong as the PML-N in Punjab. But the numbers may be a deception. One cannot say for certain whether there was any actual dent in the PML-N’s support base in the province since it was reported that the competition in a number of constituencies was between two PML-N members, one who had been given a ticket and the other contesting independently. Whether this was the case will slowly become clear as independent winners choose their respective parent parties.
Lahore once again proved to be the PML-N’s stronghold with 220 out of 265 seats going to the PML-N and only 12 going to the PTI. While the PTI has cried foul once again, it must recognise that the reason for such an embarrassing performance in Lahore must lie elsewhere. The resignation of the PTI’s Lahore convener Shafqat Mahmood is the best proof of what actually happened in the provincial capital. Clearly, the party has a lot of considering to do and it would do well to move away from rigging and look at the problems Mahmood has hinted at. The Free and Fair Election Network, Fafen, has meanwhile issued its report on the polls, saying some of the same errors seen in 2013 were repeated. It has said in some places in Punjab Fafen teams were not given access to stations and there appeared to be problems with electoral rolls. These matters will of course need to be investigated and undoubtedly there will be appeals to tribunals against some results. But it does not appear any massive rigging occurred even if organisational errors and the usual disorganisation and possible wrongdoing we see consistently in our polls did occur. Our challenge is to correct these flaws. What was more disturbing was the violence which marred the polls with 15 dead across the country. Twelve died in a clash in the Khairpur district and three others in a firing incident in the Shahpur tehsil of Sargodha. There were also violent incidents in other places. This is disturbing. The trend needs to be prevented for the next round of polling on November 19. Overall, a word should be said regarding the PPP, which showed that the crisis talk about the party may be premature, but the PPP hierarchy will admit in private that the 42 seats it has taken in Punjab are a disappointment. With two phases to go, much could still change in terms of the political picture in the provinces. The reality is, though, that any change would be a major surprise.