‘Russia-Ukraine conflict has risked future of world order’

By Jamila Achakzai

Islamabad : Besides creating a global political, diplomatic, economic, food and energy crisis, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict has also exposed the double standard of the world powers towards the principles of international politics and global governance, insisted local and foreign experts in an international conference.

Some of them feared that the issue would be a long-drawn-out affair as despite the inclination of the Russian leadership to end the war at an early stage, trends on the ground in the shape of military armament and around 50,000 non-state actors in Ukraine offered a very alarming spectre. The conference titled ‘Russia-Ukraine War: Causes, Dynamics and Implications’ was organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) in Islamabad.

According to the speakers, the war is not a choice but perhaps it’s a strategic compulsion that Moscow felt for a number of reasons like challenges ranging from the global world order to expansion of NATO and also concerns regarding the political leadership of Ukraine and its policies.

The experts said for the US, it was an ideational conflict that showed the level of violence and degree of pain and cost that could be inflicted on Russia by the US-led western alliance.

They insisted that the war seemed to be a grave miscalculation on Russia’s part because the ability of the western world to cause pain in an enduring fashion across several domains beyond the kinetic tactical or operational battlefield of Ukraine would make it very difficult for Moscow to sustain and achieve its objectives.

The speakers said China viewed the war with a lot of concern because it offered more challenges than opportunities and that a weakened Russia was not in Chinese interest. They also said the revival and rearmament of NATO also indirectly did not augur well for Beijing in terms of future prospects and that though China wanted to sustain its global economic growth but not at the cost of disturbing its trade relations with the west.

The experts said the increasing energy prices posed a huge challenge for the developing world and the governments, especially immediately after the COVID-19 crisis, while in the political domain, it was the greatest test of the current world order and a complex contest between the ideational powers, revivalist powers and states that want to be identified on the basis of nationalism.

In terms of security domain, the conflict has led to the revival and rearmament of NATO, which does not augur well for China and Russia. It also has reduced Russian energy leverage and soft power on western Europe and revived sub-conventional warfare as a means of great power contest in the east European theatre. IPS chairman Khalid Rahman said the conflict had exposed the inherent duplicity within the world order in which Western aggression of Muslim countries is justified and tolerated but not against the Western world.

Ambassador Zamir Akram said Russia was angered by the eastward expansion of NATO and had challenged the Western-led world order. He also said the Western sanctions could affect Pakistan’s ability to benefit from improving ties with Moscow, in terms of meeting its energy needs. Dr Rifaat Hussain said the people of Ukraine who are suffering due to this conflict deserve international sympathy and support. IPS vice-chairman Abrar Hussain said Ukraine conflict has created a worldwide economic, energy and food crisis which has affected all the countries including Pakistan. Russian scholar Dr Ivan Safranchuk said the Western powers couldn't have one set of rules for themselves and another for other countries in terms of security and prosperity and Russia was no longer willing to access this contradictory Western approach.