Senate cliff-hanger

The Senate chair’s election on March 12 will be tantalizing on its own, thanks to the way the Senate elections became far more thrilling than one would have thought. At the moment, the opposition holds 49 seats in a closely divided Upper House while the government holds 47. The result of the election will be decided by simple majority in a secret ballot held to determine this. There are however many factors at stake given the close division between the parties. There were two independents in the House who could vote either way. But one of these independents, Abdul Qadir, joined the PTI on Tuesday after meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan. He was already expected to vote in favour of the Balochistan Awami Party and Sadiq Sanjrani. This makes the task harder for the opposition. Then there is the undecided vote of the Jamaat-e-Islami, which has remained neutral and may not cast that vote at all. The fact that Ishaq Dar is not present and is not likely to be present on March 12, cuts down the opposition majority further.

Add to all this the rather twist in the tale offered by Pervaiz Khattak on Tuesday by saying that the PTI was offering Senate deputy chair to the JUI-F, in what could only be called a very bizarre arrangement had it happened (which it did not, since the JUI-F is said to have turned down the offer). All this makes the Senate chair vote a cliff-hanger. According to existing roles, if there is no clear winner, and votes are evenly divided between the government and opposition a new vote will be held and this process will continue until one side obtains a majority.

There are also other factors that have surrounded the Senate election. The PDM meeting held in Lahore on Monday decided that the opposition would continue its unified plan and march to the capital on March 28. It also discussed other issues but largely seems to be intact without any major rift, although on the Long March, it is obvious that the PML-N is far more eager than the PPP to go ahead with this form of protest. And then in the background, we have the question of the videos of Ali Haider Gilani and the PTI MPAs. Most important will be the Election Commission report and findings on this incident. If Yousuf Raza Gilani is disqualified, which remains a possibility, the Senate election will, of course, take a different turn. Right now, there is a huge degree of political activity across the country as delegations from both the PTI and the opposition party meet other possible allies in cities across the country. Much depends on their ability to collect the votes they need to put in place the next Senate chairman. Will it be Sadiq Sanjrani or Yousuf Raza Gilani? We do not know right now. Many factors are at stake and the possibility of more votes going over due to factors other than political decision-making or loyalty makes the whole affair difficult to predict before the end of March 12 and the final casting of the ballots.