PTI rallies in GB not to affect PML-N’s position

ISLAMABAD: PTI Chairman Imran Khan made whirlwind tours of Gilgit-Baltistan in the last few weeks before today’s general elections and addressed big rallies wherever he went.But big rallies are never a deciding factor in such contests. Hence the PTI is no match for the ruling PML-N which has already grabbed a number of political mileages.
The PML-N, which trailed far low in 2009 polls, is likely to win a thin if not comfortable simple majority in the 24-seat contest and then become a majority party in the assembly by winning technocrat, women and Ulema seats. The people of areas away from the centre cannot afford to go against the central government which provides them with funding. Same is right in the GB where the PPP won last polls when it was ruling the centre and now is the turn of the PML-N which rules Islamabad.
Hence political analysts predict that the PML-N together with JUI-F and may be MWM may form government in the GB after the polls with a smaller opposition group in the assembly.Following the elections, a 12-member GB council will also be named by the parties that will win majority in the assembly.
JUI-F, which won two seats in the last general elections, may retain both seats but many of its candidates may lose as the partychief Maulana Fazlur Rehman did not visit the territory throughout the election campaign while his rival Imran Khan created fissures for his opponents by reaching out to the electorate where his party was contesting.
However, there is a general impression that the PTI has not great organization in the territory and stands no chance of any remarkable performance in this poll. The PTI seems nowhere near the PML-N and is not likely to win even a seat or two. The real contest is between the candidates of PML-N and other parties including the PPP, Majlis Wahdatul Muslimeen and JUI-F.
The MWM did not contest last polls although it has a strong following, especially the predominantly Shia population. At some places, the PPP will give tough time but it will lose many of seats where it had won polls previously. The MWM is a new factor in the run as it did not contest last polls as it was a new party then lacking organization. It has made seat adjustments with the PPP on a number of seats which will give it an edge over other parties.
Surprisingly, the Jamaat-e-Islami has very little vote bank in the GB and hence it has not fielded any candidate on party ticket although a couple of JI affiliated candidates are in the field with little chance to win.