Pak-India conflict: After all this, will Modi win or lose?

LAHORE: The tenure of Indian lower house of Parliament Lok Sabha is going to end on June 3, so the date of new polls can be announced anytime.

With the announcement by the Election Commission, model code will come into force, which means that not even a court can intervene in the election process till the Election Commission announces the results.

According to Indian media, preliminary surveys point to the expected victory of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while Indian National Congress-led alliance United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would be runner-up.

The same survey earlier predicted BJP’s victory in 2014 polls. However, after results of Dec 2018 by-polls in which the BJP was defeated in state assemblies’ elections, Narendra Modi’s party’s win is under question. Surveys conducted during the last year have predicted a hung parliament in India.

Preliminary reviews and opinion polls from 2017 up till now paint the following picture:

2017: India Today conducted two polls that predicted 350 seats for the NDA and 60-75 seats for UPA, while other parties would get more than 100 seats.

2018: According to India Today’s January poll, NDA would get 309 seats, while UPA 102 seats and rest of the parties 132 seats.

2018: According to Republic and CVoter survey conducted in January, NDA would get 335 seats, UPA 89 and the rest 119.

2018: ABP News Network poll in May foresaw 274 seats for NDA, 164 for UPA, and 105 for other parties.

2018: India Today’s August survey forecast 281 seats for NDA, 122 for UPA and 140 for other parties.

2018: ABP News Network’s October poll predicted 276 seats for NDA, 112 for UPA, and 155 for the rest of parties.

2018: ABP News Network’s November survey says NDA would get 261 seats, UPA 119 and others 163.

2018: India TV-CNX opinion poll in December predicted 281 seats for NDA, 124 for UPA and 138 for the rest.

2018: ABP News Network survey in December envisaged 247 seats for NDA, 171 for UPA and 125 for the rest.

2018: According to India Today’s December survey, NDA would get 257 seats, UPA 146 and others would get 140.

2019: A poll conducted by VDP Associates in January predicted 225 seats for NDA, 167 seats for UPA and 150 seats for others.

2019: According to India Today January poll, NDA would get 227seats, UPA would get 166 seats and others would get 140.

2019: ABP News Network conducted a survey in January which said 233 seats would go to NDA, 167 to UPA and 143 to others.

2019: A poll conducted by Deccan Herald in January predicted 160-175 seats for NDA, 180-200 seats for UPA and 160-180 seats for others.

2019: A survey by Times Now and VPMK in January said 252 seats would go to NDA, 147 to UPA and 144 seats would go to local and other parties.

2019: VDP Associates conducted a survey in February which said 242seats would go to NDA, 148 to UPA and 153 to others. India TV and CNX conducted a survey in UP after the Balakot airstrikes which showed that out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the province, 41 seats would go to NDA, while the rest would get other seats. The Times Group conducted an online poll in February, 2019, forecasting the NDA to get 83 percent majority. It has been observed that the Modi government in India is moulding the people’s opinion in his favour after playing the Pakistan card. He is using anti-Pakistan sentiments of extremist elements to enhance his voter base.