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Tuesday March 19, 2024

NRO or deal: myth or reality

By Mazhar Abbas
February 16, 2019

Former president Pervez Musharraf was the architect of both ‘deal-2000’, with former premier Nawaz Sharif and ‘NRO-2007’, with slain prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

In both the cases, the purpose was to prolong his tenure. Who will be the main beneficiary of either of the two in case such a situation arises, this time Sharifs, former president Asif Ali Zardari or Prime Minister Imran Khan? Why there is so much speculation in the media and that too from government sources. Is something really cooking up or it’s just a myth?

In fact, the prime minister was so sensitive with the issue that he had even took it up with the Lebanese leader Saad Al-Hariri, during his recent visit as if he or some other ‘foreign friends’ were again trying to play a role in this connection.

According to Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Lebanese leader had ‘regretted that he had played a role in the deal-2000, and was disappointed’. Question is why the PM, in the first place even discussed it with him, which otherwise sound quite undiplomatic? Did he fear his or Saudi leadership’s role, this time as well.

So far there has been no clarification or contradiction from Lebanese leader or even Sharif family came out with any statement. Apparently, it looks like a myth as mere giving concessions to Shahbaz Sharif or medical treatment to Nawaz does not fall in the category of NRO or any deal, for which cases have to be withdrawn or mercy appeal be filed. Nothing of that sort has so far been sought by Sharifs. The only option could be ‘medical ground’ but that will be for one whereas ‘deal’ has to be for all Sharifs.

Situation in 2000 was different. An elected government was overthrown and Sharifs were tried by anti-terrorism court in a ‘hijacking case’. Except for Nawaz Sharif, who was sentenced to life imprisonment others were acquitted. Later, Musharraf regime went to the Sindh High Court for enhancement of sentence from life to death sentence.

Foreign interference came as in the past Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries were angry when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was executed and their appeals to commute the sentence were ignored by the then president Gen Zia. Sharif family got scared and thought they too might face the same fate from Musharraf.

The PML-N was the main sufferer with ‘deal-2000’ as family decision to stay away from politics for 10 years allowed Musharraf and his cronies to get the PML-N divided. Sharifs themselves allowed it by quitting politics. Thus, the PML-Q was the creation of the deal.

Now if the Sharifs did the same thing this time it will again be at the cost of the PML-N and chances are that the PML-Q would get stronger. If something like that happens it will indirectly suit the PTI and Imran Khan, as they are still facing strong opposition in Punjab and the PML-N is still intact.

On the other hand, if similar development took place in case of Asif Ali Zardari and his sister Faryal Talpur, and Bilawal too becomes part of the deal, it will bode well for the PTI in Sindh.

Politically, the PTI will be the main beneficiary of any deal or NRO, and the PPP and the PML-N will suffer at the cost of Sharifs and Zardaris. Both these parties and their leadership have categorically denied striking a deal or NRO and vowed to fight the legal as well as political battles. The leaders’ legacies are also at stake as both Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto’s political future depend on the outcome of the cases of Sharifs and Zardaris.

Interestingly, former president Pervez Musharraf is apparently trying options for his return to Pakistan and got support from none other than Imran’s trusted Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry, who once was close to the ex-military dictator.

He has reportedly welcomed his return to the country and even termed treason and other cases against him politically motivated.

It also indicated that the government may not pursue cases against Musharraf and the Federal Law Minister Farogh Naseem has already stated that he had nothing to do with any of the cases against him.

It appears that Musharraf after losing almost all top leaders of his party ie All Pakistan Muslim League (APML), was now trying to merge it with the PTI, and Fawad Chaudhry’s remarks during a reported interview indicate that something might be cooking up and who knows as most of the APML leaders are already in the PTI. Secondly, who knows better than Musharraf about NRO and Deal, and how it could benefit the PTI or prime minister.

Even some of the senior columnists critical of Sharifs in particular also backed a deal in which Sharifs should pay back certain amount, quit politics and go abroad.

While pro-Imran leaders like veteran Sh Rashid still believes that ‘negotiations’ are under way at some level for the safe exit for Sharifs, its being delayed due to strong opposition from PM Imran Khan. But he also knows that as far as Nawaz is in Pakistan and in jail, his dream of breaking the PML-N or creating a forward bloc may not turn into reality.

So the main beneficiaries of deal or NRO will not be Sharifs or Zardaris but the PTI and Prime Minister Imran Khan as they will be getting open space and the latter has already defended ‘U-turn’, according to the situation.

However, this time it will not merely be the ‘U-turn’ but dangerous for PM’s credibility and thus any NRO or deal still look like a myth and not reality. Politics is a game of possibility where unexpected things do take place.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO