Senate by-polls not an easy contest for PTI this time

LAHORE: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has to go extra mile to defeat PML-N in yet another phase of Senate by-elections on two seats of Punjab which fell vacant due to the disqualification of Senators having dual nationality.

The by-elections on the seats that have fallen vacant as a result of disqualification of PML-N’s Harun Akhter Khan and Saadia Abbasi are scheduled to take place on November 15. These Senate elections are significant because they are taking place just after the recent by-polls which took place in Punjab and other parts of country, and in which PTI suffered setbacks on different seats that it won in general elections. In Punjab, the number game also changed after the by-polls and PML-N, a party which has 167 MPAs in the House, also has the support of PPP with seven MPAs which take this tally to 174.

The PML-N, in order to defend its seats which it won in Senate polls in March this year, has planned to field former MNA and Senator Saud Majeed as well as former Federal Minister Saira Afzal Tarar.

The PTI has awarded ticket to Waleed Iqbal, who is grandson of the Poet of the East Hazrat Allama Iqbal whereas Seemi Aizdi, sister of former PTI Secretary General Jehangir Tareen has also been fielded from the woman seat.

The PTI, with the support of its main ally, PML-Q, has a collective strength of 186 MPAs in the House and with the support of a few independent MPAs who haven’t joined any party and Rah-e-Haq Party MPA Muawya Azam Tariq, the ruling coalition reaches a figure of around 190.

However, the last by-election that took place on October 3 this year, PTI candidate Dr Shehzad Waseem got 181 and won the election with a tough fight against PML-N’s Khawaja Ahmed Hassaan who bagged 169 votes. The October 3 by-polls on the Senate seat raised alarm bells for the PTI as its candidate received lesser votes than the actual strength of the ruling coalition. Sources stated that some of the senior party figures like Punjab Governor Chaudhry Sarwar played a major role in the victory of PTI candidate in October 3 by-polls and his good relationships with MPAs across the divide helped party in winning the seat.

Now with the likes of Saud Majeed and Saira Afzal Tarar, a tough contest is expected and any upset couldn’t be ruled out while keeping in view the level of resentment amongst ruling party MPAs.

Sources stated that the growing resentment amongst most of the MPAs who were not chosen ministers by the party leadership is also a reason that could cost party in the by-polls.

Most of the MPAs who were chosen ministers include those who got elected as independent candidates and won the seat while defeating the PTI ticket-holder. On the other hand, a big number of PTI MPAs who won on party ticket were not only ignored at the time of cabinet formation but seem also annoyed the way they have been treated within first 70 days of the government. Their complaint over lack of development funds, transfer, postings on their requests is also heard in the party parliamentary meetings. Horse-trading in such tough contest couldn’t be ruled out, said a senior PTI leader while talking to The News.

Moreover, both PML-N candidates enjoy an advantage over the PTI ticket-holders that the former have been active parliamentarians in different terms and have a good link with the MPAs of both sides. Saud Majeed not only served as MNA in 2008 and Senator in later years but also has a long political history. His father Chaudhry Majeed served as Mayor of Bahawalpur and later got elected MPA in different terms.

Saud hails from Bahawalpur from where most of the members have joined party either as independent candidates or took its ticket just a few days before polls. In this region, Saud Majeed has a good link. Saira Afzal Tarar, former federal minister hails from Hafizabad and belongs to the family of noted figures like former president Rafique Tarar and another renowned politician of the region Afzal Tarar. Saira got elected MNA in 2008 and 2013.

Like the family of Saud Majeed, family of Saira Afzal Tarar also has good connection with MPAs in Punjab and in case of a close contest, it could benefit her. Waleed Iqbal and Seemi Aizdi are facing first big contest. Waleed Iqbal contested a general election in 2013 on the PTI ticket whereas Seemi Aizdi has been a staunch party activist and has a longer history of affiliation with Tehreek-e-Insaf, as compared to her brother Jehangir Khan Tareen. The advantage Waleed Iqbal and Seemi Azdi have in the by-polls is the existing vote bank of party which is greater than the PML-N. However, the two PTI leaders, including Punjab Governor Chaudhry Sarwar and Jehangir Khan Tareen, have the main role to play to ensure victory of PTI candidates and keep the party vote bank intact. Similarly, amongst PTI allies, Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi holds the key for the success of the PTI candidates as PML-Q, with 10 MPAs in the House and the experience of Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi could prove vital.

The four independent MPAs, including Ahmed Ali Aulakh, Bilal Warraich, Jugnoo Mohsin and Qasim Khan, also have a significant role now. This is noteworthy that Punjab Assembly will become the polling station for the fourth time for Senate elections this year out of which two times, MPAs voted in the by-polls on the vacant seat and once in the Senate polls scheduled after every three years.

Earlier this year, on the seat that fell vacant after the resignation of PPP’s Dr Babar Awan who joined PTI, it was PML-N’s Asad Ashraf who won the election comfortably while defeating PTI’s Dr Zarqa Taimur in March this year.

Two days later, the same month, PML-N won 11 seats in the Senate polls whereas PTI clinched one in form of Chaudhry Sarwar. After July 25 elections while PTI came to power, Chaudhry Sarwar resigned from Senatorhip and took oath as Governor. On his vacant seat, it was PTI’s Dr Shehzad Waseem who won the poll with a margin of 12 votes against PML-N’s Khawaja Ahmed Hassaan. Dr Shehzad got 181 votes whereas PML-N candidate stood at number two position.