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July 12, 2018

Heavy rain forecast for next 24-48hrs


July 12, 2018

LAHORE: The second spell of monsoon rain may hit several cities, including the provincial capital, in the next 24-48 hours though it remained partly cloudy here on Wednesday with humid conditions.

Heavy to very heavy falls are also expected at isolated places in Kashmir, Gujranwala, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Hazara and Malakand divisions from July 13 to 15, MET officials said, adding monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have started to penetrate north-eastern parts of the country.

These currents are likely to intensify from Thursday as a westerly wave is also expected to prevail over the upper parts of the country from Wednesday.

They said under the influence of these meteorological conditions, the monsoon rains are likely to commence over Kashmir, upper Punjab and upper KP in the next 48 hours. More rain-thundershowers with gusty winds are expected at scattered places in Islamabad, upper Punjab (Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sargodha, Faisalabad divisions), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (Malakand, Hazara, Peshawar, Mardan, Kohat divisions), FATA and Kashmir, while at isolated places in Bannu, D I Khan, Sahiwal, Multan divisions from Thursday to Sunday. Rain is also likely to occur at isolated places in Sindh province and north Balochistan on July 14 and 15.

Rainfall was recorded at several cities, including Garhi Dupatta, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Kotli, Sialkot, Murree, Gujrat, Mangla, Balakot, Malamjabba and Dir. Wednesday’s highest maximum temperature was recorded at Sibbi where the mercury reached 47°C while in Lahore it was 33°C, minimum was 27.6°C and humidity level was 64 per cent.

Seasonal forecast issued by MET officials said that the global models indicate the large uncertainty about the evolution of El-Niño during the month of July 2018. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain in the neutral phase, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to fluctuate in positive phase in the next two months.

They said on the basis of these climatic forcings and statistical downscaling of GCM’s the salient features of weather for July 2018 included rainfall to match the long-term average to slightly more in northern half of Pakistan.

Good rainfall spells are expected in the second and third decade of the month, which may cause urban flooding and flashfloods in some parts of the country while below normal rain is expected in the lower half of the country, including Sindh and Balochistan, they concluded.

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