On notice

There had been a noticeable improvement in relations between Pakistan and the US in recent weeks after the Trump administration finally realised that it would need to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban to bring about an end to the war in Afghanistan. The US knows that Pakistan will be crucial to arranging peace talks with the Taliban which is why US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javed Bajwa earlier this month. Gen Bajwa’s visit to Kabul last week to meet with Afghan government officials and US commanders was also part of the process that seemed to be leading to a normalisation of ties between Pakistan and the US. That optimism has been curdled somewhat, though, by testimony given by US State Department official Alice Wells to the US Congress. Wells has repeated that Pakistan is still “on notice” and that the country still hasn’t taken sufficient action against the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network. The most immediate effect of this testimony is that the two billion dollars in aid suspended by the US will probably not be released anytime soon. It also serves as a reminder that, while the two countries may work together when their interests converge, there has been an irrevocable shift in their relationship.

Wells did mention in her testimony that Pakistan has an important role to play in the Afghan peace process. Since Pakistan’s chief complaint against the US and the Afghan government has been their unwillingness to take action against the TTP and its allies, the killing of TTP chief Maulana Fazlullah in a US strike in the Kunar province of Afghanistan could help restore some confidence. But it also underscores how TTP militants were allowed to operate unimpeded in Afghanistan for years. For the moment, Pakistan, the US and Afghanistan are all on the same page regarding the need for a negotiated settlement with the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan’s role in arranging a ceasefire over Eid could help kick start the process. But we should be under no illusions that the US is in any way changing its tone on Pakistan. It has made clear that it intends to pursue closer relations with India and even increase their involvement in Afghanistan. On core issues like Kashmir, we should expect no US help. Wells’ testimony served only as a reminder that the relationship between the two countries is now even more openly transactional and need-based than before.