Imran Khan’s strategy to win over Punjab

Imran Khan, as a politician, has come a long way to his current position, sensing a victory for his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in the general elections. On Sunday, almost two-and-a-half months before the election date, he announced his first 100-day programme as the prime minister of Pakistan, if his party is voted to power. His party will have to win at least 120-130 seats to implement his plans. Can he do it, this time with a changed political strategy, particularly adopted to win over Punjab with the ‘electables’ of Pakistan Muslim League-N and Pakistan People’s Party.

While the PTI will announce its full election manifesto next month, his 100-day plan seems to be a smart move to exert pressure on the PML-N at a time when the ruling party is struggling to find a ‘common narrative' before the next elections.

Unlike in 2013, Imran and PTI have an advantage to contest the 2018 elections. The PML-N won Punjab in the last elections, as then the PPP was in power in Centre and its bad governance went in favour of it.

In 2018, voters will have to decide between the PPP and PML-N governments in 10 years, or going for the third alternative with its performance in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where most surveys gave edge to the PTI, to retain its position on the basis of its performance.

The biggest advantage which Imran and the PTI enjoy this time is the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif in the aftermath of Panama leaks. While experts will discuss his first 100-day plan in power, it is important to analyse and asses as to how the PTI would cause a major upset in Punjab, where it did not perform well, either in 2013 elections or in the last local bodies or by-elections including the one held after former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's disqualification.

Imran, PTI and even some PML-N leaders strongly believe that Nawaz Sharif's back-to-back statements regarding Mumbai attacks and against the establishment could hurt the PML-N success chances. Imran also expects a major split in the PML-N after NAB court verdict in the corruption case against Nawaz Sharif and family, and during the interim government.

After 2013 elections, the PTI chairman and his Punjab team adopted three-pronged strategy to win over the Punjab. The PTI needed at least 60-70 seats from Punjab alone.

(1) Go for ‘electables’ in Punjab, who traditionally win their respective seats irrespective of their political affiliation with any party. Initially, Imran did not support this idea; but after local bodies and by-elections back-to-back defeats forced him to accept the narrative of people like Jehangir Tareen, Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar and Aleem Khan. Thus, the PTI now has at least 15-20pc ‘electables’ and expects some more to join its ranks.

(2) Maintaining attacks on Sharifs and PML-N in an aggressive way. Dharna-2014 was part of the strategy and though Imran was very hopeful that Judicial Commission findings would lead to fresh polls, he kept his pressure despite disappointment.

(3) Win over neutral voters and make new voters.

In the process it practically eliminated the PPP in Punjab, whose major vote bank now stands with the PTI.

The first point will play a major role in the next elections in PTI success, as despite party's expected victory in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, it will rely on Independents in Balochistan and very few in Sindh.

So, Imran needs to sweep Punjab and, as the first step, he shocked Sharif with a major breakthrough in southern Punjab. In the past, it has often been won by the PPP, during the Bhutto and Benazir eras. His decision to sign an accord with a strong ‘Janubi Punjab Suba Mahaz’, was a big setback for the Sharifs.

Beside, he has also caused a dent in the PML-N in Faisalabad, Jhang, Jhelum and Sialkot, and he is confident of improving his position in Sharif's stronghold Lahore. However, much depends on the mistakes committed by Sharifs, which can benefit Imran as happened in the case of his recent statement on Mumbai attacks.

Nawaz Sharif's anti-judiciary narrative and his far more aggressive posture after his interview could be anything except Election-2018 strategy to win polls.

There is no doubt that the PML-N, after the Islamabad sit-in and Judicial Commission report looked strong until the Panama leaks hit Nawaz Sharif in April 2016. Sharifs and party high command badly misread the possible fallout of Panama leaks. The leaks came a few months after PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari broke his political ties with Sharif, for his role in action against his party in Sindh.

Sharif's mishandling of Panama gave a new lease of life to otherwise demoralised PTI, which was losing one after the other by-elections. The PML-N and Nawaz Sharif committed one mistake after another and did not even consider the PPP and other parties’ suggestions to decide the Panama issue in the Parliament, instead of going to the court.

It was the beginning of the crisis in the party's top cadres. Name of former interior minister, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, got prominence because he was the one who opposed Nawaz Sharif's decision to go to the SC or go too far in defending himself by making one speech after another.

All this proved to be a blessing in disguise for Imran Khan and the PTI. The hype created by the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif to defend himself went in favour of Imran. Yet, it was not over for Sharif and the result of by-election in Lahore on the seat falling vacant as a result of Sharif's disqualification was reassuring for him as his spouse, Kulsoom Nawaz won the seat despite her absence due to her poor health.

Imran Khan later on got another shock when his most trusted man, Jehangir Tareen, was also disqualified and unlike in the case of Nawaz Sharif, the PTI could not retain his seat in the by-election and the Junior Tareen lost to the PML-N.

A top party leader and a close aide of Imran told this writer on Sunday that the PTI had certainly changed its strategy for the upcoming polls, but it would be wrong to suggest that all those who have joined the PTI recently would get the party tickets. It could be either 70-30 or 60-40 formula, he added.

Quoting Imran's famous saying, 'I can compromise on my principles for a greater cause, but not on my basic principle,' the PTI leader said Imran would not disappoint the old, dedicated PTI leaders and workers in Punjab. But, at the same time, if you want to win, you have to consider the 'electables'.

Imran knows that the battle with the PML-N is far from over and he still considers Punjab Chief Minister and PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif as a big challenger and he needs to break the myth of PML-N strong organisational base in Punjab.

Political developments in the last 10 months had given him big hope for victory, which included disqualification of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and the expected verdict in NAB case.

Cracks and dents are quite visible in the PML-N, and though 75 per cent party is still intact under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif, even those still with him are confused as they believe it would be difficult to get votes on Nawaz Sharif’s current narrative.

If the verdict against Nawaz Sharif is announced before Eid, as expected, one has to wait and see the response at the PML-N public meetings. So far, he has not addressed any public meeting in Punjab after his controversial statement and the only one where he got a good response was in Mardan.

Nawaz Sharif is leaving a difficult task for his brother and PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif, whose campaign would revolve round his development projects in Punjab.  

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO