Financial wellbeing to dictate electorate decisions in months to come

LAHORE: Pakistan’s economic growth in the last 54 months has increased from three percent to around 5.7 percent. In the previous five years the growth deteriorated from six percent to three percent.

The previous government was booted out of power in the country except in Sindh. With elections round the corner and four different parties in power in the four provinces, it would be easier for the electorate to judge the performance of each provincial government and the voting pattern for the national assembly seats would probably be the same as exhibited in each province.

At the federal level, the government has succeeded in overcoming the power shortages and energy crisis. The inflation has remained low during past four and half years; employment prospects for the unskilled workforce have improved vastly because of boom in the construction sector.

This has pulled many families out of poverty. Still many families have entered poverty as their bread earners were unfortunately associated with the exporting industries. As exports declined so did the jobs in exporting industries. Federal government boasts about its infrastructure projects, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other improvements in the economy, and genuinely thinks that the glass is more than half full. But for those that have been left out the glass in empty. The perception about the economy is based on the way one is living now compared with their lifestyle 54 months back. In Pakistan’s election, the provincial performance overshadows the performance of the federal government.

However, in the province where the ruling party is the same as in the centre, the performance of the federal government also matters because the provincial government lends support to all measure taken by the federal government. Similarly, federal government facilitates that province more where its own party is in power.

Economic growth everywhere is meant for the overall benefit of the nation. Even a full glass would look empty to majority of those who have found more misery in accelerated growth. The number of multinational fast food outlets has pleased the wealthy and middleclass families. The highly impressive local food outlets are operating to their full capacity in large cities. The amount of money spent in these expensive outlets for food runs in to billions of rupees daily. The beneficiaries are five to 10 percent upper class families.

The rest of the population cumulatively spends almost the same amount monthly to feed their families as spent by the elite class in just one day. That most of them remain under nourished is another matter. For all of these sufferers the glass remains half empty.

When farmers reaps record sugarcane and wheat crop and part with their produce at normal rates or are not paid their dues for months as in case of sugarcane, then the glass looks empty to them and full to those few that benefited in this process. When bicycle rates jump up and go beyond the reach of poor men they do not see any growth at all.

Take the boom in automobiles. The number of cars and motorcycles have increased manifold during the last five years. During this period, around 10 million vehicles (one million cars and nine million motorcycles have been added, benefiting as many million families or 60 million people (average size of family taken as six).

For them the economy is moving in the right direction. For the poor who cannot afford to buy daily use vegetables like tomato or onions the economy is not improving. The rates of motorcycles have declined drastically in five years. The prime 50cc brand that was sold at Rs78,000 five years back is now available at Rs50,000. The lesser known brands that never existed earlier are even cheaper.

There is a tremendous increase in the sales of generators. More than million households now have this facility to fight the menace of load shedding. For majority of poor, the time without electricity has increased.

The rates of television sets, refrigerators and air conditioners have decreased by 30-50 percent in the last seven years. Quality of life for middle income groups has improved.

Food inflation has kept on increasing creating hardships for the poor that consume up to 80 percent of their income on food. Provinces would take credit of positives and pass on the negatives to federal inadequacies.