Is Elon Musk set to become first trillionaire in 2026? Market odds explained

Prediction markets are placing the bold bet on Elon Musk reaching a historic financial milestone.

According to Kalshi traders, the 54-year-old tech billionaire will hit $1 trillion this year, up from 75 percent odds based on Forbes’ real-time list.

The traders assigned a probability of 78 percent that the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla will become the world’s first trillionaire even before 2027, a leap that would redefine the scale of modern wealth creation.

According to Forbes’ real-time billionaire list, Musk’s net worth is around $849.3 billion, followed by Larry Page at $251 billion, Sergey Brin at $231.7 billion and Mark Zuckerberg at $219.4 billion.

The founder of xAI said his net worth is associated with ownership in SpaceX and Tesla.

Taking to X, Elon Musk responded to the wealth creation debate, “Already have thousands of times over. My “net worth” is almost entirely due to my ownership stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. I have

“Tesla and SpaceX employees all receive stock/options and Tesla is >80% owned by retail investors and index/pension funds, so value increases apply >80% to them,” he added.

Musk’s wealth stems mostly from 13-15 percent Tesla stake and 42-43 percent share in SpaceX.

Earlier this month, SpaceX acquired xAI in a strategic merger, aiming to build data centers in orbit. The merger brought the valuation to $1.25 trillion. In this entity, Musk owns around 43 percent stake.

If the current projection materializes, Musk would surpass every billionaire in history, marking a new era where wealth would be concentrated in the tech sector.