Islamabad: The abrupt tabling of a no-confidence motion against Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri in mysterious circumstances has raised several eyebrows, smelling a conspiracy to sabotage the Senate elections in March and engineer wanted uncertainty.
The riddle is yet to be resolved as to what actually provoked and prompted the extreme move by a group of lawmakers. No signs of any tension between them and the chief minister were ever in the open before the moving of the no-trust resolution. The development came out of the blue, surprising and forcing many to read more than what meets the eye.
The excuse – lopsided allocation of resources - given by those who sponsored the no-confidence motion, also including some “disgruntled” elements of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) whom Zehri belongs, is lame and unconvincing. If it had been justified, it would have cropped up a few months back.
When the provincial assembly has a life of less than five months, the move to oust the chief minister sounds implausible, having some other motives other than what has been cited. The present dissenters will get an opportunity to sideline Zehri when the new general elections will be held in July, but they decided not to wait till that time. The resolution is ill-timed and impels many to sense a machination to trigger destabilisation.
What the dissidents will be able to accomplish in just five months to serve the province best that they can’t with Zehri continuing as the chief minister during this short period is anybody’s guess. The new man if the incumbent is ousted will consume this short time in only settling down instead of doing any worthwhile work.
The instability is unfortunately being spawned in a relatively volatile province where a lot is still needed to be done to fully restore law and order. While the countrywide concerted operations, conducted by the law enforcement agencies, have been largely successful in almost all parts of Pakistan, Balochistan continues to be hit by sporadic terrorist incidents. Different elements, most importantly India, are engaged in fomenting troubles in this region.
The Zehri government was formed with the support of his own PML-N, the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), National Party (NP), headed by Hasil Bizenjo, and others. It has been absolutely comfortable on the basis of the numerical strength it enjoys. This combination of allies has been intact since the 2013 general elections. As per the agreement, the NP had its nominee, Dr Abdul Malik, as the chief minister for first half of the five-year term. There was smooth transaction when Zehri replaced him for the rest of tenure.
The support of the PkMAP and NP to the PML-N is in place. But there are cracks in the PML-N, and some other smaller partners of the ruling alliance are displeased with the chief minister and have whipped up a storm against him. The PkMAP and NP have stakes in the provincial government and are unlikely to let it fall.
As far as the PML-N’s “rebellious” elements are concerned, they are likely to be stopped from their present trajectory by the senior leadership, sensitising them about the dire consequences of the floor crossing as provided in the Constitution. Under Article 63A, if a lawmaker votes or abstains from voting contrary to any direction issued by his parliamentary party in relation to election of the chief minister or a vote of confidence or a vote of no-confidence, he may be declared in writing by the party head to have defected.
The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which sits on the opposition benches in the Balochistan Assembly, also holds the key to thwart the no-trust resolution. Being a coalition partner of the PML-N at the federal level, it may come forward to rescue the chief minister from collapse provided ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif intervenes and urges the JUI-F chief to foil the attempt.
The JUI-F may not hesitate to extend its needed support because it will also be one of the major losers in the Senate election if the provincial legislature goes in case Zehri is voted out and no other lawmaker is in a position to be elected as the chief minister.
If, for example, the Balochistan Assembly is dissolved in a week after the success of the no-confidence motion and no other legislator enjoys sufficient support to replace him, the fresh provincial polls will have to be held within ninety days. Consequentially, for the time being the Senate election from Balochistan will be thus blocked, but it will be organised as the new assembly will come in place before the scheduled general elections across Pakistan in coming July. Thus, the conspiracy, if any, will be successful for the moment in blocking the Senate election only from Balochistan, but it will stand nailed as this election will be arranged after the polls.
Realising the grave scenario, the PML-N has sprung into action to save the situation from becoming uncontrollable and has formed a three-member committee headed by Raja Zafarul Haq and comprising Ahsan Iqbal and Khawaja Saad Rafique to address the grievances of its Balochistan lawmakers. The defeat of the no-trust motion may not come as a surprise given the numerical picture in favour of the ruling coalition in the Balochistan assembly.
