CPEC trial run success razes India’s hopes

LAHORE: Trial run of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route successfully from Kashghar to Gwadar has shattered India’s long term plan to squeeze its neighbour economically as the route has provided Islamabad the opportunity to reach lucrative markets at low cost.

CPEC is rewriting the economic geography, and regional integrity of the subcontinent will effectively end the hegemony of India in the region. Historically and across the world, trade routes have tended to flow from north to south.

Bulk of global population live in the northern hemisphere and trade has tended to seek a route to the sea that up till now has not been directly available to most through a single country. Goods were to be transhipped from more than two countries to reach for instance Central Asian States and Afghanistan.

As India opened up its economy in 1991, absence of sufficient economic trade with its neighbours emerged as a paradox. The Indian prime ministers, irrespective of party and whatever their individual instincts and political beliefs, were convinced by their policy makers that as India's economy grew, Pakistan would be compelled by business and commercial logic to engage with India.

The CPEC alters that supposition. It replaces Pakistan's dependence on a north-south trade corridor with its bet on an east-west corridor, from Kashghar (Xinjiang province) to Gwadar. This trade route is fairly unprecedented and is an expression of a new economic and strategic geography that China wants to define.

China benefits immensely from this route as it has shortened the distance of its huge western region with the developed economies by about 12,000 kilometres. The Central Asian States, Afghanistan and other countries of the region now are directly connected to the entire world through Gwadar.

Mother ships would dock at this port to transport goods directly through both rail and road. This is the most economical trade route to all land-locked countries and regions.

The speed with which the road infrastructure was completed surprised the Indians. Their plan to disrupt the CPEC route before it becomes operational has been jeopardised. The optimum operations of this route would take some time, but the credit goes to the Frontier Work Organisation that completed and secured the most difficult route passing through Balochistan.

The Indians were planning insurgency in that province to sabotage the construction of infrastructure in Balochistan. The army has secured the route as well and its check posts around the route have ensured that peace would return to the province very soon.

The Indian media that had been urging its government to take every step to stop CPEC now clearly stands divided. The saner elements have been urging their government to accept the reality and try to gain trade access through this route.

The hawks however, are still not giving up and have asked their government to disregard international law and stop water channels going to Pakistan through its territory. India tried to align Afghanistan and Iran to develop an alternate route to CPEC by developing the Iranian port of Chabahar. However, it was reluctant to provide the promised assistance for the development of that port.

The Iranians also realised that the alternate seaport was viable only if the CPEC was not built. The Indians assured them that they would sabotage the entire route. Alternate trade route through Chahbahar is relatively cheaper than trading goods meant for western China through Shanghai port.

However, if CPEC is operational, the route would be twice as expensive then Gwadar.

The Iranians have now informed Pakistan that they are ready to link Chahbahar with CPEC that passes through Pakistan.

CPEC’s strategic importance for China is greater than usual and it has publically announced to protect it at all cost. This is because of the access it allows western China to the Indian Ocean, as an alternative to the Straits of Malacca.

It also gives China a presence that will allow it room for immediate military and political influence in India's neighbourhood and in west Asia.

Indian imports and exports with the countries served by CPEC would be expensive compared with the import and exports of Pakistan, Sri Lanka or other countries using this route.

Currently India’s bilateral trade with China alone stands at $100 billion. It may lose some trade volume if CPEC route is denied.

Pakistan is the major stakeholder in CPEC. It will demand political and economic concessions to provide access to this route to Indians. CPEC has turned the tables on India.