Government and opposition through “quiet diplomacy” have agreed in principle to respect each other’s legal battle and the decision to follow including disqualification, instead of going for the street agitation over, “Panama papers,” but the main opposition leader, Imran Khan is still skeptical about the final outcome and decided to continue fighting on all fronts.
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and opposition leader Khursheed Shah along with an important leader of the PTI playing important role in this “quiet diplomacy”, and want to avoid a situation that could lead to confrontation.
The PTI has also filed requisition for special Public Accounts Committee meeting on ‘Panama Papers’, in reference to the failure of FBR, from issuing letters to all those hundreds of people whose names appeared in it.
An unimpeachable source told this scribe Tuesday that the government may show some flexibility on opposition’s Terms of Reference, ToR, in a bid to resume dialogue between the two, which may lead to any possible breakthrough.
Source said, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq whose role is more of a “facilitator”, has assured opposition delegation led by Aitzaz Ahsan Tuesday that he would speak to the government for its response so that talks on ToR, which had been suspended by the opposition, be resumed. Speaker himself is facing a situation of his lifetime as rarely in the parliamentary history, the speaker had received so many references for the disqualification of none other than Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the one hand and against PTI chairman, on the other.
If Nawaz is the leader of speaker’s party ie the PML-N, he also has conflict of interest in Imran’s case as they belong to the same constituency and contested against each other.
A source close to the speaker, disclosed that he has to decide within 30 days, after receiving the references on August 5. He can recommend to the Election Commission of Pakistan, in case his ruling led to disqualification. If he did not take any decision the matter would automatically goes to the ECP, where petitions of similar nature were already pending.
The outcome of reference and petitions can then be challenged in the high court and appeal can be filed in the Supreme Court. Thus, it would be quite interesting to watch how the speaker would apply his mind in giving landmark rulings about Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan.
Developments in the power corridors and in the Parliament in the last few days have defused the rising tension particularly between the ruling PML-N and PPP, in the aftermath of the Quetta carnage.
Interior Minister Ch Nisar and opposition leaders Aitzaz Ahsan and Khursheed Shah are tight-lipped after the initial outburst. Neither side raised the issue of Ayyan Ali and Dr Asim Hussain, in the last two days inside or outside the Parliament. It’s a ‘ceasefire’, but for the time being silence from all sides in the last few days indicates that it could also be part of quiet diplomacy. Situation had flared up when after Aitzaz and Shah publicly accused Nisar and put responsibility of the alleged intelligence failure on him, the interior minister, made some sensational disclosure about PPP’s alleged links with model Ayyan, and that an important man has offered a deal, in case government provides relief in these two cases.
PPP leaders asked Nisar to name the person and disclosed from whose account payments were made for tickets of Bilawal and Ayyan.
Later, due to the intervention of some common friends situation was defused and both sides were asked not to make any public accusation against each other. It would now be interesting to see whether PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto and Ayyan’s lawyer Latif Khosa would send legal notice to the interior minister or have dropped the idea for the time being.
After meeting top leaders of the ruling and opposition parties one got an indication that things inside the Parliament are not as charged as outside.
Joint opposition looked quite disjointed as reflected from an important meeting of the joint opposition. One leader who was most frustrated was none other than the president of Awami Muslim League, Sh Rashid.
Sh Rashid may now advise Imran Khan his closest and perhaps the only ally to go all out on the street along with the PAT and the JI, and should not rely on the PPP, MQM and ANP.
He is also against Imran’s decision to file a petition in the Supreme Court, as its verdict would be the end of the story particularly in case his appeal is rejected.
So Sh Rashid’s advise to Imran was against going to the Supreme Court. Instead, he is more inclined towards street agitation and ultimate march to Islamabad, by mid- September. However, the decision of the opposition to file petitions in the ECP and reference before the speaker, National Assembly, which legally would take from one month to three months followed by high court and Supreme Court, Imran-led opposition would not be in a better position to mobilise workers and supporters for yet another “Long March”, without the PPP on board.
While the PML-N and the PPP have decided to engage some other political parties as well in this ‘quiet diplomacy’ much depend on the government initiative. Leader of the opposition Khursheed Shah has hinted that while they agreed in principle on new legislation on broad-based accountability, differences persist as how to get the law passed.
Some opposition parties including the PTI may not want to link it with, ‘Panama Papers’. Interestingly, within the political parties there are problems in the presence of the “hawks”. For instance, after talking to some most prominent PPP leaders, this scribe got the impression that it’s a “divided house”, and party workers are not ready for street protest particularly in Punjab.
The PPP, after back-to-back defeats in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir, and in the absence of any organisation, is not prepared to take to street.
Although, the PTI is also facing a similar situation and in case Imran decided to go all out and take the risk, it would be quite challenging for him to see any major success and his last hope will again be, the Supreme Court.
IK, who apparently looked confused whether to take the legal course first or build street pressure in the next one month before he give call for, ‘Pakistan March’, to Islamabad, has announced to go simultaneously, the decision which can prove ‘suicidal’, for him, in case he lose the legal battle.
While ‘Panama Papers’, still haunt Nawaz and likely to be main issue of the opposition in the next general elections, provided quiet diplomacy, not sabotaged by the “hawks”.
This may give some relief to the government and see 2016, without any major political upheaval. But, can all this lead to the revival of ‘Charter of Democracy’, between the PML-N and the PPP on the one hand, and government-MQM talks on the other.
The decision of the MQM to disassociate itself from the Joint opposition Tuesday came after Ch Nisar assured the MQM leaders on a point of order against arrest of its workers in Karachi. Thus, in the coming days and weeks we may see ‘ping pong’, or in other words ‘tug-of-war’, between government and its allies versus opposition. Mishandling on part of the government can still push and unite them, again. So, crisis is not yet over for Nawaz, but certainly has defused due to ‘quiet diplomacy’.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang
