OPEC+ meets as oil output hike looms

LONDON: Ministers of the OPEC+ oil alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, hold talks on Wednesday to discuss their production levels as another hike looms despite falling prices.

The 22-nation group began a series of cuts in 2022 to prop up crude prices, but Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other members surprised markets recently by sharply raising output for May and June.

The move has put pressure on prices, which have also fallen as investors worry that US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught will cause an economic slump and weigh on demand.

Analysts say the hikes have likely been aimed at punishing OPEC members that have failed to meet their quotas, but it also follows pressure from Trump to increase production.

OPEC+ ministers are not expected to change the alliance’s collective policy during their online meeting on Wednesday which starts at 1300 GMT. Instead, a decision to accelerate output hikes in July is expected to be made by its leading members -- known as the ‘V8’ or ‘voluntary eight’ -- at a meeting on Saturday.

Such a decision, however, is not expected to have a major effect on oil prices, which have hovered around a relatively low $60-$65 per barrel. “This potential hike seems largely priced in already (by the markets),” said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB research group. “We expect market reactions to remain relatively muted,” Hvalbye said.

Punish laggards?

Analysts see several possible motivations for the production hikes. The move is seen as Saudi Arabia and others penalising members for failing to meet their quotas under the cuts first agreed in 2022.

Kazakhstan, which is seen as one of the main laggards, “continues to produce roughly 350,000 barrels above its quota,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management.

Analysts also note that the production increases came after Trump called on OPEC to hike output in order to contain inflation.

A third reason could be an attempt by Saudi Arabia to drive prices down to add pressure on the US shale business and increase its market share. At a meeting in December, OPEC+ decided to wait until late 2026 to reverse collective cuts of some two million barrels per day (bpd), as well as additional cuts by some member countries of 1.65 million bpd. But the V8 decided to reopen the valves this year, raising output by 411,000 bpd in May. It then shocked the markets by unveiling a similar increase for June, much higher than an initial plan of 137,000 bpd. “There are rumours that the group will move ahead with another triple hike (411,000 barrels) in July” at its meeting on Saturday, said analysts at Norwegian financial services group DNB.