India weighs plan to slash Pakistan water supply with new Indus River project

NEW DELHI/ISLAMABAD: India is considering plans to dramatically increase the water it draws from a major river that feeds Pakistani farms downstream, as part of retaliatory action for a deadly April attack on tourists that New Delhi blames on Islamabad, according to four people familiar with the matter.

Delhi “put in abeyance” its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which governs usage of the Indus river system, shortly after 26 civilians in Indian Kashmir were killed in what India called an act of terror. Pakistan has denied involvement in the incident, but the accord has not been revived despite the two nuclear-armed neighbours agreeing a ceasefire last week following the worst fighting between them in decades.

After suspending India’s participation in the treaty, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered officials to expedite planning and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, three bodies of water in the Indus system that are designated primarily for Pakistan’s use, six people told Reuters.

One of the key plans under discussion involves doubling to 120km the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab, which runs through India to Pakistan’s agricultural powerhouse of Punjab, two of the people said. The canal was built in the 19th century, long before the treaty was signed.

India is permitted to draw a limited amount of water from the Chenab for irrigation, but an expanded canal - which experts said could take years to construct - would allow it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, up from about 40 cubic meters currently, the four people said, citing official discussions and documents they had seen.

Details of the Indian government’s deliberations on expanding Ranbir have not previously been reported. The discussions started last month and continue even after the ceasefire, one of the people said.

The Indian ministries responsible for water and foreign affairs, as well as Modi’s office, did not respond to Reuters’ questions. Indian hydropower giant NHPC, which operates many projects in the Indus system, also did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Modi said in a fiery speech this week that “water and blood cannot flow together,” though he didn’t refer to the treaty. Water minister CR Paatil told a media event Friday that his ministry would “implement what Prime Minister Modi says” and “try to ensure that not a drop of water goes out.”

The water and foreign ministries of Pakistan did not respond to requests for comment. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers this week that the government had written to India arguing that suspending the treaty was unlawful and that Islamabad regarded it as remaining in force.

Islamabad said after India suspended the treaty in April that it considered “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” to be an “act of war.”

About 80 percent of Pakistani farms depend on the Indus system, as do nearly all hydropower projects serving the country of some 250 million.

Any efforts by Delhi to build dams, canals or other infrastructure that would withhold or divert significant amount of flow from the Indus system to India “would take years to realize,” said water security expert David Michel of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

But Pakistan has had a preview of the kind of pressure it could face from India: Water at a key receiving point in Pakistan briefly fell by as much as 90 percent in early May after India started maintenance work on some Indus projects.

Meanwhile, India has accelerated construction work to link Chenab with Beas and Ravi rivers to complete its nefarious design to deprive Pakistan of its water resources.

Pakistan’s eminent water expert Engineer Arshad H Abbasi, in his recent report titled “Chenab at the Crossroads: A Plea for Preservation over Exploitation”, has delivered a dire warning about the fate of Chenab River.

Often called the “Moon River,” the Chenab traverses a 130 kilometres stretch in Himachal Pradesh, which constitutes only a small fraction—7,500 square kilometres—of its overall 61,000 square kilometres basin. Despite this limited stretch, Himachal Pradesh has aggressively embarked on the construction, implementation, and planning of 49 hydroelectric projects. This has placed South Asia’s last relatively free-flowing river under immense threat.

India has already constructed the Baguru Navile Tunnel, the country’s longest water tunnel at 9.7 kilometres, and is nearing completion of the Zoji La Tunnel, a 14.2 kilometre-long passage at an altitude of 12,000 feet in the Himalayas. This expertise, he fears, could easily be used to link the Chenab with the Beas and Ravi rivers, enabling India to divert water to the Ranjit Sagar Dam, which was built on the Ravi in 2001.

According to Abbasi, the next eight to 12 months are critical. He warns that India may move quickly to construct unlined tunnels to connect the Chenab to the Beas and Ravi rivers, depriving Pakistan of its vital water resources.

Abbasi warned the Pakistan government about India’s plans to connect Chenab River to Beas River through Gyspa Dam, an initiative that was allocated funds in India’s 2011–2012 budget. The project includes a 23 kilometre-long concrete tunnel linking Chenab to Solong Nala. The water expert contrasts India’s commitment to sustainability and ecological preservation in Himachal Pradesh with what he perceives as the indifference of some Pakistani NGOs, accusing them of sacrificing national interests for short-term gains.

Abbasi has long raised alarms about India’s infrastructure projects, warning that they amount to systematic “water theft” and represent a far graver challenge than previous violations like Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle projects. He describes Gyspa Dam project, with its one million acre-feet of live storage capacity, as the most egregious violation yet of Pakistan’s water rights. The tender for its detailed design was floated as early as 2009.

According to reports from Jammu City, a tunnel boring machine is currently operating at Tawi River, which is one of the reasons for the decreasing flow in Chenab River. The tunnel boring machine is currently active in Bartha, a small town 25 km northeast of Jammu, near Tawi River’s bank. The project aims to construct tunnel under the river to connect with Nullah, which flows into Ravi River.

“If these projects proceed as planned, the Chenab will shrink to a mere trickle, with less than 4 per cent of its flow remaining visible. One hydropower project after another is being constructed in quick succession, leaving no space for the river to flow naturally. Water from one hydroelectric project no longer rejoins the river but instead gets diverted to the reservoir of the next. This once-thriving waterway is being fragmented into stagnant pools and barren sections, bypassed entirely through tunnels.”

Engineer Abbasi points out that the Indus Waters Treaty, once heralded as a beacon of hope, now seems like a relic of the past. Under the treaty, the Chenab was designated as a “Western River” and was meant to remain free-flowing. “Yet, a series of dams and hydroelectric projects have already restricted its waters in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir as well as in Pakistan. Now, the river’s last unimpeded stretch in Himachal Pradesh is under siege.”

Even more concerning is that five major hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir are set to be completed by 2026. While the relatively smaller 38 MW Parnai hydroelectric project in Poonch, managed by the J&K State Power Development Corporation (JKSPDC), is expected to finish by late 2026, four massive projects—Ratle (850 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), and Kwar (540 MW)—are on track for completion next year.

The Pakal Dul Dam, situated on the Marusudar River (a tributary of the Chenab) in Kishtwar district of Jammu and Kashmir, is particularly concerning. With a storage capacity of 150,000 acre-feet, this dam’s primary purpose is to generate hydroelectric power. It diverts water southward through a 10-kilometre-long headrace tunnel to a power station linked to the Dul Hasti Dam reservoir on the Chenab. Awarded in 2014 to a consortium of Indian and international firms, including Afcons Infrastructure, Jaiprakash Associates, and Bharat Heavy Electricals, the project has drawn objections from Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s protests, claiming the project violates the Indus Waters Treaty, have been largely ineffective, while India has emphasized the strategic importance of the project.

Additionally, Abbasi criticised the failure of Pakistani NGOs and retired diplomats, who often echo India’s narrative under the guise of addressing climate change, to grasp the severity of the water crisis. He highlights that the glaciers feeding the Chenab’s headwaters are melting at an alarming rate due to climate change. Over the past six decades, the region has warmed by 1.14°C, and in just the last 25 years, the glacier-covered area of the Chenab basin has shrunk by 23 square kilometres. Indian scientists warn that by the end of the century, only 50–52 per cent of the glaciers in the basin will remain intact.

Abbasi further points to India’s advanced tunnelling capabilities as a significant threat. He emphasised that Pakistan must develop the necessary skills to counter the economic warfare being waged by India, which includes acts of economic espionage and exploitation facilitated by those who “betray national interests from snakes within our sleeves”.