Dar launches Economic Survey for 2015-16 today

ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Finance Ishaq Dar is going to launch Economic Survey for 2015-16 today (Thursday) afternoon in which he will throw light on macroeconomic performance achieved by the country in outgoing financial year.

The Economic Survey 2015-16 will also update the cost of war against terrorism as losses incurred to Pakistan’s economy would slightly go up by few billion dollars in outgoing fiscal year compared to $107 billion calculated by Islamabad in 2014-15.

The Economic Survey for 2015-16 will incorporate poverty level at 29 percent population in accordance with recently adopted new methodology by Pakistan in complete consultation and validation of the World Bank.

Although, the government missed out GDP growth, investment and savings targets but the country achieved 4.7 percent growth in outgoing fiscal year, which was highest in last eight years.

Pakistan’s per capita income has gone up to $1561 in financial year 2015-16 against $1517 per person last year, registering an increase by just 2.9 percent in outgoing financial year ending on June 30, 2016. 

However, the overall investment to GDP ratio has slightly declined in outgoing financial year despite getting investment inflows from China under $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Although, Beijing had turned into the largest investor in Pakistan from all around the globe but overall investment to GDP ratio had slightly declined.

The investment to GDP ratio came down from revised figure of last year’s 15.5 percent of GDP in 2014-15 to 15.2 percent of GDP during the current financial year 2015-16.

The savings to GDP ratio also declined slightly as it reduced from 14.7 percent of GDP in 2014-15 to 14.5 percent of GDP in 2015-16.

For calculating per capita income, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) took population growth of 1.94 percent in the current fiscal year against 1.98 percent in last financial year.

“As the exchange rate largely remained stable so the per capita income also showed nominal growth in current fiscal compared to last year by achieving growth of just 2.9 percent,” said the official sources.

Pakistan’s per capita income had gone up to $1513 in fiscal year 2014-15 against $1384 in 2013-14, witnessing a growth by 9.4 percent. Now this year the growth in per capita has declined to just 2.9 percent.

The population growth stands at around 1.94 percent so per capita income in the range of 2.9 percent increase showed dismal picture on this account.

The overall investment to GDP ratio declined from 15.5 percent to 15.2 percent in the current financial year mainly because of private sector investments.

“The private sector investment reduced from 10.2 percent of GDP in 2014-15 to 9.8 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year 2015-16,” said the official and added that it
also indicated that the private sector was still reluctant to go for new investments and modernising its existing plants.

The public sector investment has gone up from 3.7 percent of GDP in 2014-15 to 3.8 percent of GDP in the current financial year.

The foreign direct investment (FDI) in first ten months (July-April) period increased as it went up to $1.002 billion in ten months of FY 2015-16 against $893 million in the same period of the last financial year.

The FDI increased by 12 percent in outgoing fiscal year mainly because of Chinese investments on account of CPEC initiatives so far.