Gloomy with a chance of chaos

In the latest future prediction for Pakistan, the Business Monitor International (BMI) of the Fitch credit ratings agency has said that PTI founder chairman Imran Khan will “remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future”. The BMI report includes 10-year forecasts extending to 2033. It expects the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to “remain in power over the coming 18 months" and succeed in pushing through with IMF-mandated fiscal reforms, with a downfall possible only in case of an increase in violence or a painful economic crisis prompting a widespread protest movement. Per the report, fresh elections are unlikely to happen as it would “raise the prospect that Khan’s allies would gain a parliamentary majority”. The report also outlines a possible scenario where a technocratic administration might take charge if the government changes.

The BMI report is not surprising given the political upheaval in the country and the looming economic problems. Some believe that the economic crisis and rising inflation has exacerbated political chaos. They say that had the PDM government been able to stabilize the economy in its previous 16-month tenure, the election results would have been different. The rising cost of living is also keeping the popularity of the opposition alive at the moment and if economic stability is achieved during this IMF programme, it could also lead to some respite for the government politically. Most worrying is the ‘technocratic administration’ scenario. This is hardly anything new though, an idea that has been doing the rounds for over a decade in the country – presumably due to some sort of fascination with the ‘Bangladesh model’, which refers to a long caretaker setup comprising technocrats back in 2006 in Bangladesh. The model eventually failed, as expected. More anxious observers say that Pakistan has already experimented with a longer caretaker setup in the country before the February 8 polls, thus this possibility cannot be ruled out in any case.

It is not much of an exaggeration to worry that the hybrid model has become so entrenched in the system over the last few years that there may not be any going back and such ‘experiments’ a la Bangladesh can be a possibility since more direct interventions are not even needed when hardline measures can be taken regardless of who is in power. Unfortunately, political parties have shown their double standards. They talk about freedoms when in opposition but as soon as they come to power, the gloves come off and they are the ones curtailing and curbing freedoms. The only way out is for all political parties to put aside their differences and come together for one agenda: ensuring real democracy instead of the pretend democracy they are vying to be a part of. As they stand today, our political parties have given a nod to disenfranchising Pakistani voters. If this continues, there will be no political stability and democracy will erode to a point that none of us would remember what it looked like in the first place. The people of Pakistan have always resisted authoritarianism in all forms and they continue to do that. It is now the political leadership’s responsibility to pay heed to the people of Pakistan and unite for democracy.