After facing uncertainty in the last few days regarding whether or not the local government elections would take place on their scheduled date, the people of Karachi and Hyderabad divisions would finally cast their votes today to elect their local governments.
The tenure of the last elected local governments ended in August 2020. For two-and-a-half years after then, administrators appointed by the Sindh government looked after the municipal bodies of Karachi and Hyderabad.
The road to the local government elections proved to be bumpy as it took three postponements, litigation and political fights before the polls could finally be held.
The local government elections are taking place in a total 16 districts of Sindh, seven of which belong to the Karachi division.
Due to multiple postponements and political unwillingness of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to hold the polls, many political parties could not plan proper electioneering to seek votes prior to the polls.
Apart from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) that did not make any alliance or seat adjustment anywhere in Karachi, major political parties such as the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and PPP have entered into alliances even with their rival parties in various union committees (UCs).
These parties are supporting each other in some UCs and in other UCs, they are contesting the polls against each other.
Political analysts predict that the PPP will win more UCs from the suburban areas of the city. It is likely to emerge victorious in its tradition strongholds such as Lyari.
The PPP also seems strong in two UCs of Saddar Town, and some UCs in North Nazimabad, Malir, Keamari, Safoora Goth, Model Colony and Chanesar Goth towns.
The MQM-P seems the only major party that seems unprepared for the polls. After the unification of various Muttahida factions, the party could not decide about who would be its final candidates as the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement Restoration Committee (MQM-RC) had fielded their own candidates prior to the MQM unification.
It is unclear whether the PSP and MQM-RC candidates would support the MQM-P in the local bodies elections or they would separately contest the polls. In addition to this problem, the MQM-P was also trying till the eleventh hour to get the polls postponed. However, this strategy also failed.
In all this confusion, the only success the MQM-P achieved is that its rivals could not do effective electioneering in the last few days.
Even of the PSP and MQM-RC support the MQM-P, Muttahida will certainly not be the favorite to win the local bodies elections.
The party’s vote bank in Landhi, Korangi, Orangi, PIB Colony, Baldia Town, New Karachi, Liaquatabad, Shah Faisal Colony, Lines Area and Gulshan-e-Iqbal has been due to the TLP managing to get support of a large number of Barelvis.
About the JI’s popularity and electioneering, some political journalists are of the view that the party always conducted a well-organised electioneering campaign before every election but its efforts bear no fruits.
They believe that the JI might emerge victorious in a some UCs across the city and at most it may bring its chairman in two or three towns, but winning from the entire city is a distant dream for the JI.
The JI will hurt the MQM-P and PTI in some middle-class areas such as Gulshan-e-Iqbal, North Nazimabad and Nazimabad, as well as in areas of District West and Malir with Pakhtun majority.
The JI may win from those UCs which were won by the Awami National Party in the past, as the latter has considerably weakened in the city.
The TLP and PTI are relatively new political players in the polls. However, in the cantonment polls that were held last year, the PTI emerged as the largest political party. Of the 42 councillor seats in Karachi’s cantonment boards, the PTI won 14, followed by the PPP with 11 seats. The JI secured only five seats.
If the cantonment elections are a good precursor to the local government elections, it can be predicted that there will be a tough competition between the PPP and PTI for the mayoral post.
However, no party seems to be in a position to clean sweep the polls, due to which post-election alliances will likely determine the next mayor of Karachi.
