Moqtada-al-Sadr in surprise comeback, seems set to win Iraq election

BAGHDAD: Nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a long-time adversary of the United States, led in Iraq’s parliamentary election with more than half the votes counted on Monday, the electoral commission said, in a surprise turn of fortune for the leader.

In the first election since Islamic State was defeated in the country, militia chief Hadi al-Amiri’s bloc, which is backed by Iran, was in second place, while Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, once seen as the front-runner, trailed in third position.

The preliminary results were based on a count of more than 95 percent of the votes cast in 10 of Iraq’s 18 provinces.

Unlike Abadi, a rare ally of both the United States and Iran, Sadr is an opponent of both of the countries which have wielded influence in Iraq since a US-led invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein and ushered the majority to power.

Sadr has led two uprisings against US forces in Iraq and is one of the few leaders to distance himself from Iran. Potraying himself as an Iraqi nationalist, Sadr has a zealous following among the young, poor and dispossessed, but he had been sidelined by influential Iranian-backed figures.

He can not become prime minister as he did not run in the election, though his apparent victory puts him in a position to pick someone for the job. But even then his bloc might not necessarily form the next government since whoever wins the most seats must negotiate a coalition government in order to have a majority in parliament.

The governmment should be formed within 90 days of the official results. The election held on Saturday is the first since the defeat of Islamic State, with the capture of its de facto capital Mosul, last year.

The group overran a third of Iraq in 2014.Turnout was 44.52 percent with 92 percent of votes counted, the Independent High Electoral Commission said - that was significantly lower than in previous elections.

Full results are due to be officially announced later on Monday. Sadr and Amiri both came in first in four of the 10 provinces where votes were counted, but the cleric’s bloc won significantly more votes in the capital, Baghdad, which has the highest number of seats.

A document provided to Reuters by a candidate in Baghdad that was also circulating among journalists and analysts showed results from all 18 provinces. Reuters could not independently verify the document’s authenticity but the results in it showed Sadr had won the nationwide popular vote with more than 1.3 million votes and gained 54 of parliament’s 329 seats.

He was followed by Amiri with more than 1.2 million votes, translating into 47 seats, and Abadi with more than 1 million votes and 42 seats, according to calculations made by Reuters based on the document.

Ex-Prime Miniser Nuri al-Maliki, a close ally of Iran like Amiri, came in fourth with 25 seats. Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically guarantee that Sadr will be able to hand-pick a prime minister.

The other winning blocs would have to agree on the nomination. In a 2010 election, Vice President Ayad Allawi’s group won the largest number of seats, albeit with a narrow margin, but he was blocked from becoming prime minister for which he blamed Tehran. And a similar fate could befall Sadr. Iran has publicly stated it would not allow his bloc to govern and may try to form a governing coalition between its allies, Amiri and Maliki.

"We will not allow liberals and communists to govern in Iraq," Ali Akbar Velayati, top adviser to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in February. His statement, which sparked criticism by Iraqi figures, was referring to the electoral alliance between Sadr, the Iraqi Communist Party and other secular groups who joined protests organised by Sadr in 2016 to press the government to see through a move to stem endemic corruption.