Can PML defeat history?

If you go by electoral history of Pakistan and the pattern in the elections since 1970, I don't see return of Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) in the elections for one reason or the other. Can PML-N or Sharifs change the discourse of history in 2018?

No political party had won the election consecutively in back-to-back elections in the last 40 years. So, if one goes by history, the calculation is very simple and that is why the task for PML-N is daunting and that too when its main leader is disqualified.

Now, how the parties have been prevented from winning the second term is altogether a different story and will discuss it and see how parties and leaders were deprived of their possible victories, but let’s first see the facts on ground.

What happened in Balochistan is an eye-opener for the PML-N, when it lost the party, overnight as once happened in Punjab Assembly as well in the 1990s. The PML had almost lost Senate elections in Balochistan, two months before it due. Though the PML-N is still there, yet only on-paper. That means that it has already lost 11 senators to be elected from the province in March.

Now, who will win the next elections and who will form the next government, if not the PML-N. On-ground, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its chairman, Imran Khan, is confident that his party would form the next government while former president, Asif Ali Zardari, has predicted Bilawal Bhutto as the next prime minister. But, firstly let’s see the pattern in which elections were held from 1970 to 2017.

In 1970, the first elections were held on party basis and one-man one-vote. After the disintegration of Pakistan, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which won elections in the West Pakistan, formed the government. In 1977, elections were declared null and void amid allegations of rigging and a martial law was imposed.

In 1985, elections were held on non-party basis, but, polls gave birth to Pakistan Muslim League (PML), and Mohammad Khan Junejo became the prime minister. His government was dismissed under the black law, 58-2 (B), and no elections were announced till the death of longest-serving General Ziaul Haq.

In 1988, elections were held again on party basis and the PPP won the polls and was handed over power by the interim government. Benazir Bhutto become the first woman prime minister of the Muslim world. But, her government too was dismissed under the same law in 1990, within 22 months and fresh elections were called.

In 1990, the PML-N was declared winner and for the first time, Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif was elected as the prime minister. Earlier, he had served as the Punjab chief minister. His government too became the victim of the same black law in 1993, and elections were again called under another interim government.

In 1993, the PPP was voted to power again and Benazir Bhutto became the prime minister for the second time. But, she was confronted with the same crisis and the result was more or less the same. In 1996, weeks after the murder of her brother Mir Murtaza Bhutto, her own party man, former president, the late Sardar Farooq Leghari, sacked her under the same law i.e. 58-2(B).

In 1996, elections were held again under another interim government and, for the first time, the PML-N got two-thirds majority, while the PPP was reduced to 18 National Assembly (NA) seats.

On Oct 12, 1999, the military took over power after a coup, following former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, sacked General (retd) Pervez Musharraf and appointed General Ziauddin Butt as new army chief. But, the military command remained loyal to Musharraf and Sharif was sent packing.

In 2002, another elections were held but, for the first time, minus Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. The PPP emerged as single largest party, but Musharraf-led government deprived them of power. Instead, a new party, PML-Q, was installed and Mohammad Khan Jamali became the PM. During Musharraf's tenure, Jamali was replaced by Shaukat Aziz.

In 2007, Musharraf called fresh elections which was later held in 2008, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The PPP won the elections and Yusuf Raza Gilani became the prime minister while Asif Ali Zardari became the president and Musharraf quit the power.

In 2013, for the first time since 1970, any party completed its full term and elections were held under a caretaker government, agreed upon by the government and the opposition. The PML-N won the polls and Nawaz Sharif became the PM for record third time.

Now, the PML-N is about to complete its term and elections, as per schedule, are due in July 2018 and if we go by the abovementioned pattern, it clearly showed that for whatever reasons, no party ever won two consecutive polls.

There are more than one evidence to understand how elections had been manipulated since 1985, elections held on non-party basis, which itself was a move to depoliticise politics.

Role of intelligence agencies also played a role in some of these elections and matter also went to the superior courts. If in 1993, the SC declared dissolution of Sharif government illegal, it also held that 1990 elections were rigged.

In the light of the set pattern of elections, the PML-N looked in trouble and yet, due to the strong presence of Nawaz Sharif, it looked quite intact, at least in Punjab.

While the PML-N and disqualified and ousted PM Nawaz Sharif is confident of creating history, one only has to wait to see if he can change the course of history and create one by winning the next polls, or the old pattern will continue.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO