What does PM Sharif do next?

The good news is that Tahirul Qadri has left D-Chowk. The bad news? The bad news is also that Tahirul Qadri has left D Chowk. It is good news because nothing was going to come of the camping trip that Qadri was leading. His followers deserve better than to be sitting in the cold through the upcoming cold winter months.
It is bad news because now that they have packed up, the prime minister and his core PML-N party leadership may decide to breathe a sigh of relief. Any notions they may have had, of needing to change how PM Sharif runs the country, may be leaving along with the supporters of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek.
We have spent the better part of two months now focusing on all the mistakes PM Sharif has made and is making. His weaknesses and limitations have been exposed in an unprecedented manner thanks to the tenacity of PAT and PTI supporters. The larger question about whether this episode has been good for the country is debatable.
The long marches and dharnas and jalsas that began on August 14 this year will go down as being great for Pakistan if the sum total of their impact results in a dramatically reformed PML-N and a major change in how PM Sharif lives every minute of this remaining time as prime minister.
Unlike Imran Khan, or any candidate the Bhutto-Zardari political enterprise may have in mind, Nawaz Sharif can win the office of prime minister without needing a coalition. The margin of victory Sharif enjoyed in the May 2013 elections, and the surge of new PML-N members soon afterwards, helped cement a solid majority at the centre, aligned with a totally dominant majority in Punjab. For most federalists, this is seen as a bad thing. But that is not because the formula itself is problematic. It is because Nawaz Sharif keeps making the same mistakes over and over again.
For now, let’s stop being retrospective and complaining. How can PM Sharif salvage his term and become a leader of the stature of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and possibly Mohammad Ali Jinnah? In other words, how can PM Sharif transform the fortunes of Pakistan?
For starters, it is important to recognise that it is not too late. Even if he takes another month to awaken from his slumber, he will have a solid thirty months before elections in 2018. Second, it is important to recognise that he doesn’t need to look far for talent; his party still commands among the best political and technical talent among Pakistan’s mainstream parties. Third, it is vital to acknowledge that the civil-military divide that defines Pakistani governance in the aggregate is of a very different nature today than it was in the 1990s. In summary, PM Sharif has the time, the people, and the political space to perform miracles.
What about Imran Khan and the PTI? There is nothing stopping the dharna from continuing. It allows young people to let off steam, and some older people still yearning for their youth to pretend that they represent change. Let’s not kid ourselves. Khan is the most electrifying political figure in Pakistan. But let’s not kid ourselves. He has played more than the cards he was dealt, and the resilience of the Sharif has to exasperate even the fighting spirit of the great Kaptaan. If PM Sharif decides to change how he governs, no matter what the Kaptaan does, he will be unable to unseat him before 2018. But that is a big if.
What should PM Sharif do? He has to start the process of rescuing his term by starting from himself. He needs to take his job much more seriously. He has to change his working hours and working style. Unlike former president Asif Ali Zardari, PM Sharif does not start the day in the afternoon, but he is not a very early riser either. The real problem is that after 7pm or so, PM Sharif retires for the evening. Part of this is informed by his keenness to watch television talk shows. Part of it is informed by an inexplicable attitude of passiveness.
The entire federal government is somnambulant because no federal secretary is worried about a 3am call from the prime minister. It doesn’t ever happen. The prime minister of Pakistan should be working 14 to 18 hours a day. If he did, so would the entire federal government, and so would at least parts of the provincial governments too. In short, at least in working hours, the elder Sharif has to be more like the younger Sharif.
If the PM is going to work really, really hard, he will need a team of professionals to handle his affairs. Currently, he has a small group of highly talented and energetic officers who manage the PM Office. However, he invests incredible degrees of personal trust and affection with those he is surrounded by. This means a personalisation of policy that would be dangerous even in a medium-sized firm, what to talk of a massive country in the throes of multiple crises.
The PM needs to have people look him in the eye and tell him he is wrong. Often. He needs to have people challenge those near him who offer advice that is meant to enrich individuals or businesses. He needs to mix professional government bureaucrats from the DMG/PAS with some from other groups, some from the provincial services, and some from outside government altogether. No matter how difficult it may be, the PM has to surround himself with more people who display a complete absence of personal reverence to him. In short, the PM Office needs a major overhaul.
Once he cleans up his own office, he needs to empower and energise his cabinet. Despite having a stable of top political and technical people at his disposal he has allowed too much policy drift. Some of the problem will be solved when he spends more time at work, and becomes more hands on, instead of letting junior bureaucrats pretend to run the country. However, he needs to realise the need to separate personal loyalty from professional competence.
Has this government been good at messaging and agenda-setting? Have civil-military relations improved? Is an economic strategy entirely contingent on subsidised capital inflows a good one? The answers to these are obvious. No, no and no. Should the PM really be exposing his three closest confidantes to the challenges of the ministries of information, defence and finance? The answer to that question is obvious too.
Finally, the prime minister, given his parliamentary strength has a chance to construct a really powerful national narrative without ceding very much power. To do this, he needs to ensure that his cabinet has people that speak with different accents. Both his inner and outer circle lack Pakhtun, Sindhi and Baloch voices. Would it hurt to reach out to smaller parties? Benevolence never hurt anyone, except the really insecure.
Today, over 70 days since the dharnas began, the PM is still standing. The time for paralysis and inaction is over. It is time for the PM to lead. If he does not, what remains in D-Chowk could well evolve into something entirely more menacing. The PTI’s limitations have been a blessing for the prime minister, but his limitations must not become a curse for Pakistan.
The writer is an analyst and commentator.