Lockdowns may have saved 59,000 lives in Europe: study

PARIS: Strict containment measures might have already saved up to 59,000 lives across 11 European countries battling the spread of the new coronavirus, experts in Britain say. Basing their modelling on the numbers of recorded deaths from COVID-19, researchers from Imperial College London said most countries it looked at had likely dramatically reduced the rate at which the virus spreads. Using the experiences of countries with the most advanced epidemics like Italy and Spain, the study compared actual fatality rates with an estimate of what would have happened with no measures such as school closures, event cancellations and lockdowns.

“With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March,” said the report, which was released Monday. “Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. Billions of people around the world have been ordered to stay home to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has killed more than 38,000 people since it emerged in China late last year. The Imperial College study said despite the grave strain on the medical system in Italy, lockdown measures had “averted a health care catastrophe”, estimating that the containment efforts had saved 38,000 lives. In Spain researchers estimate 16,000 lives had been saved, while in France the number was 2,500, in Belgium 560, Germany 550, the United Kingdom 370, Switzerland 340, Austria 140, Sweden 82, Denmark 69 and Norway 10. Epidemiologists from Imperial College are part of the group advising the British government on its outbreak response.

The study, which used assumptions about the proportion of infected people not recorded in official figures, estimated that some 5.9 million people could have been infected in Italy up to March 28 — almost 10 percent of the population. In Spain, researchers noted a recent “large increase” in deaths and estimated that some seven million people — or 15 percent of the population — have been infected. It said it was too early to say whether countries with lower death tolls would see a comparable impact of their intervention measures as those battling a more severe epidemic. “We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism,” it added.

Macron announces push to produce coronavirus masks, ventilators: France is rushing to produce millions of face masks and thousands of ventilators as reliance on imports to fight the coronavirus has exposed the country´s need for “independence” in producing vital medical equipment, President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday. “We have to rebuild our national and European sovereignty,” Macron said as he visited a surgical mask factory in Saint-Barthelemy-d´Anjou, near Angers in western France, where he donned a mask, coveralls and a plastic hairnet to tour the facility. Macron promised “full independence” by the end of the year in the production of protective face masks for France, which like most other countries was woefully understocked when the epidemic struck. With some 40 million masks required per week for frontline medical staff, the government had placed orders for over a billion masks to be delivered in the coming weeks, mainly from China.