Fall of Aleppo would hand Putin elusive prize

MOSCOW: Vladimir Putin thinks Russian air strikes in Syria have helped turn the war’s tide but the pace of the Syrian army’s advance has frustrated him, some sources say.

If Aleppo falls, he could get the military and symbolic prize he has been craving.

More than four months of Russian air strikes have stabilised the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the Kremlin’s closest Middle East ally, helping his forces find momentum on the battlefield.

But the names and strategic significance of the towns and villages they have recaptured have failed to electrify a Russian public more worried about falling living standards.

Nor has the Syrian army - backed by Russian air power - yet delivered a major victory that Russia can sell to the wider world as proof of its military might and growing Middle East clout.

"There has been some frustration with the Syrian army’s performance," one source close to the Russian military, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

"Particularly in the beginning they were making slow progress." Retaking full control of Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city before the five-year war, would change the narrative, say diplomats and analysts, bringing Putin a step closer to his preferred end-game which envisages a Russia-friendly Syrian government that allows Moscow to keep its naval and air base there.

"So far we’ve heard reports of government forces gaining ground here and there and there have been a few notable successes," Dmitry Trenin, a former colonel in the Russian army and director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, told Reuters.

"But all those successes were rather tactical and not particularly spectacular," said Trenin.

"Should Aleppo be placed under full control of Damascus that would be a big psychological boost for Assad and a source of satisfaction for the Kremlin."

Aleppo has been divided for years, with government forces controlling a section and other parts in the hands of rebels.

Tens of thousands of Syrians fled intensifying Russian bombardment around Aleppo on Friday, and aid workers said they feared the city, which once held two million people, could soon fall under complete government siege.

Government troops and their Lebanese and Iranian allies fully encircled the countryside north of Aleppo and cut off the main supply route linking the city to Turkey in the last 24 hours.

Ankara said it suspected the aim was to starve the population into submission.

As the Kremlin’s impatience for a breakthrough has grown, it has bolstered its forces in Syria.

Mostly recently, local media reported it had dispatched its most advanced military jet -- the Sukhoi-35s -- to join its strike force of around 40 fast jets. It has also intensified its strike rate.

A victory in Aleppo could help lift morale at home where an economic crisis is eroding living standards and real incomes are falling for the first time in Putin’s 15 years in power.

Boosted and protected by a loyal state media, a tightly-controlled political system and a dearth of meaningful opposition, Putin’s approval rating remains over 80 percent according to opinion polls.