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Thursday March 28, 2024

Water managers give conflicting projections of first ‘dry flood season’

By Munawar Hasan
May 03, 2022

LAHORE: Going forward from present record low early-Kharif river flows, water managers have differed whether we are progressing to first-ever catastrophic ‘dry flood season’ or abnormally high floods following rise in mercury levels in the North.

Water managers are currently weighing possibility of both first-ever dry flood season and flash-flooding during summer season. Most of water experts associated with provincial irrigation department stare at continuation of driest early Kharif ever in upcoming flood season, starting from second week of June. A senior official said worst water shortage may yet to come. The country may have weathered the driest season ever for now, but the worst could be around the corner, he observed.

It’s been a month since witnessing rare water shortage with start of early Kharif water season without seeing considerable surge in rivers flows after starting of snow melting. Such massive drop in water flows brings driest conditions on the back of scanty rivers inflows despite record breaking heatwave.

In the absence of reasonable snow-feeding into Indus Basin System, early Kharif season starting from April 1 continues to exhibit dry conditions and this trend may linger on to end of season till June 10 or even beyond, ringing alarm bells for the economy that the worst is yet to come.

Citing a recent study done by the department, he opined, it has been observed that snowfall in winter and spring months have been widespread this year but its thickness is assessed to be quite lesser. A good part of this snow has already melted into Indus Basin and there is no much mass available in low and medium reaches at least. Pakistan feels the impact of steepest fall in rivers inflows, but the worst is still yet to come, he concluded.

However, an official of Water & Power Development Authority (Wapda) holds contrasting view of emerging water scenario. The expert believed lack of rain and low temperature in catchment area in North have caused decline in rivers flows since April 1 this year. In utter contrast, he anticipated flash floods in late-Kharif season from June 10 onwards with rise in mercury level coupled with onset of monsoon season.

Coming precisely to the ongoing water shortage crisis, official said, last six or so weeks have mostly been observed dry and whatever rivers flows being recorded are comprising snow melting. So, one of the biggest reasons of extremely low rivers flows may actually be not related to projected low snow pack but absence of rainy water. He said an unprecedented long duration of high mercury levels in plains and extreme cold conditions prevailed in North exacerbated water scarcity in rivers and canals. As soon as temperature in catchment area started increasing, there would be upward trend in rivers flows.

Elaborating dynamics of water cycle, he said, during the cold part of the year comprising winter and spring in high altitudes, the water is stored as snow and ice, which fully or partly melts starting from the spring season out of snowcapped mountains and glaciers. Hence, the rivers that have started in high mountains from melting ice and snow are called mainly snow-fed rivers. Rains also contribute in their flows to various degree of volumes. Indus River is one of the main snow-fed rivers in the whole region.

All rivers originating from Northern mountainous ranges bordering Afghanistan in West and China in North and North East as well as nestling along Indian state of Himachal Pradesh are both snow and rain- fed rivers. With different ratios, these are partly formed with melting of snow of mountains and with streams produced by rain on the hills and downstream areas.In this backdrop, he added, all eyes were now on behaviour of upcoming monsoon season as far as making up river shortages.