SC saves Pakistan from civil war and economic meltdown

Giving a deadline to the PTI govt to comply with the Constitution by April 9, the Supreme Court verdict was historic by many standards.

Amid fears of the country being pulled down by two monsters like imminent economic meltdown and bankruptcy, the Supreme Court arrested the downwards slide. The verdict immediately caused recovery of the rupee, which had hit almost Rs191 against the dollar, and a rally in the stock exchange. Against the backdrop of economic and financial vulnerability, Pakistan was not prepared for new elections. It was also due to the fact that the country was facing a Sri Lanka-like economic collapse. Hence, the verdict did not put the country on the path of immediate general elections. An interim setup could not have made critical decisions and stabilised the economy, anyway.

The SC's judgment could have been linked with another point in time of our checkered history. Had in 1971, the then Supreme Court intervened to convene an assembly meeting in West Pakistan, we could have a different outcome today. Fast forward, the Supreme Court's verdict preempted a civil war-like situation as the joint opposition had the parliamentary strength to form its own government on April 3, 2022. Given the political parties dominating representation in Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab and part of KP were supporting the NCM.

During the five-day debate in the SC's hearing, at one point, signals were given for fresh elections. But, the SC rightly understood the interest of the state, economy, pulse of the people and constraints of the Constitution, restored the April 3 status of the National Assembly, hence saving the day for the country.

The court did not buy the international conspiracy narrative of the PTI govt. Neither did it show any interest in the in-camera briefing of the government, nor ordered any inquiry into these conspiracy theories.

Worse, the PTI had to suffer big embarrassment when Reuters-like news agencies carried stories of Pakistan's security officials debunking the two myths, a) the international conspiracy and b) the US money behind the NCM of the opposition. Ironically, the interests of America, GCC countries and Pakistan were aligned in many ways, particularly with the exit of Imran govt which ruined Pakistan's foreign policy interests with not only the US and EU but also with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration was not even on talking terms with the IK Govt. This is why at the end, the government gave up on its talks with the IMF.

The SC verdict against PM Imran Khan also marked the end of the "Imran project" and any ambition behind this project to impose any extra-constitutional political system on the country i.e. the presidential form of government. The verdict by default saved Pakistan from a reckless, egomaniac adventurism of individuals dominating the current system.

The SC must have come under huge pressure to take this decision yet it did not compromise on upholding the Constitution and rule of law. Pakistan and the opposition, particularly the main beneficiary of the NMC i.e. PMLN, after all, owes everything to Pakistan's two centres of the establishment -- the GHQ and Aabpara -- for staying out of the whole episode of NCM and subsequent SC hearing and its verdict. PM Imran Khan on several occasions indirectly used threats and inducements to force the establishment to abandon neutrality but to no avail. If any wrongdoing was committed in the general elections of 2018 in favour of PTI, the neutrality ensured no extra, out-of-the-way, help granted to PM Imran Khan at the cost of united opposition.

If Pakistan and the opposition owe this day to any two particular individuals in the establishment, it is COAS Gen Qamar Bajwa for his absolute neutrality and the ISI DG for smooth and unapologetic execution of the neutral posture of establishment towards the PTI govt. An anchor of stability, the establishment held its centre of gravity whether it was Russia-Ukraine crisis or US-induced PTI narrative of conspiracy of balancing relations with domestic political stakeholders; it played a stabilising role.

With Shehbaz Sharif likely the prime minister of the country, the SC has put Pakistan on a positive political trajectory. Now, the new government, irrespective of which party it belongs to, has the uphill task to turn around the economy, control inflation, steer Pakistan out of FATF list, manage procurement of US military hardware for defence, attract foreign investment and thwart any Indian designs. If it manages all that, it should be welcomed by all and sundry. The time for delivery by the new govt starts from today – enough of PTI idealism and scapegoating.

Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a politician from Balochistan and an ex-adviser to the Balochistan Government on media and strategic communication. He remained associated with BBC World Service. He is also Chairman of the Institute of New Horizons (INH) & Balochistan. He tweets @Jan_Achakzai