Delta variant threatens new pandemic challenge

PARIS: The highly-contagious Delta variant is causing a surge in new Covid-19 cases even in countries with high vaccination rates and experts warn that inoculation campaigns are in a race against time to contain it.

For the moment the pandemic is still slowing down with the World Health Organisation (WHO) reporting the lowest number of new cases worldwide since February and decreasing deaths attributed to the coronavirus.

But concerns are growing about the fast-spreading variant, prompting new restrictions in countries that had previously managed to control their epidemics. Cases are on the rise in Russia, Australia, Israel and across parts of Africa, in part due to Delta.

Other countries fear they could be next. The Delta variant of Sars-CoV-2 was first detected in India where it began circulating around April. It is now present to varying degrees in at least 85 countries according to the WHO.

In Europe, Delta initially gained a foothold in the United Kingdom, where it quickly outpaced the previous variant of concern Alpha, and now comprises 95 percent of all sequenced cases in England.

Delta is thought to be some 40 to 60 percent more contagious than Alpha, which itself is more contagious than the strain responsible for the first wave of Covid-19. The pattern has repeated elsewhere.

In the United States last week 35 percent of positive tests that were sequenced were identified as the Delta variant, up from about 10 percent on June 5 -- numbers similar to what is being observed in Israel.

The European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) has estimated Delta could account for 70 percent of new infections in the EU by the beginning of August and 90 percent by the end of that month.

Researchers looking at data from the greater Paris region estimate in a soon-to-be-published report that Delta could be as much as 50 to 80 percent more contagious than other strains. Top US infectious disease scientist Anthony Fauci called the variant the "greatest threat" to efforts to control the virus and called for an acceleration in vaccinations, American media reported on Tuesday.

While several studies have shown that vaccines are slightly less effective against Delta, they are still highly effective. But only after the second dose.

Recent data from the UK government shows that full immunisation can offer about 96 percent protection against hospitalisation and 79 percent protection against symptomatic infection by the Delta variant.

Protection after only one dose, however, is much weaker -- 35 percent, according to the same data. "One dose is not enough," says a public health notice from the ECDC, "full vaccination is needed to protect the most vulnerable."

Delta is so contagious that experts say you would need to inoculate more than 80 percent of a population in order to contain it -- a target that would be challenging even for nations with significant vaccination programmes.

In Africa, the WHO estimates that only one percent of the population is fully vaccinated -- the lowest ratio globally. Meanwhile, India’s richest state Maharashtra tightened restrictions on Friday, citing fears of a "more severe third wave" as the country recorded its third death caused by a new coronavirus variant.

The announcement came days after India’s health ministry called Delta Plus a "variant of concern", citing its increased transmissibility and ability to bind to lung cell receptors more easily. India has recorded 48 cases of the variant so far, with Maharashtra reporting 21 infections -- higher than any other state.

Three people have died after contracting Delta Plus, including one in Maharashtra, the state’s health department spokesman Ajay Jadhav told AFP. Under the new guidelines, malls and theatres in Maharashtra, home to financial hub Mumbai, will remain closed, while restaurants will be permitted to operate on weekdays at 50 percent capacity until 4:00 pm.

Gyms, salons and shops will also have to shut their doors at 4:00 pm, while a limit of 50 guests will be imposed on weddings. The curbs come less than a month after the state eased restrictions in most districts as coronavirus cases declined following a devastating second wave in the country.

Infections and deaths in India soared to record levels in April and May, overwhelming health services in some places and prompting lockdowns in most of the country. India has recorded more than 30 million infections since the pandemic began, with Maharashtra accounting for around a fifth of the total cases.