Coronavirus to drop China's first quarter economic growth

ISLAMABAD: The novel coronavirus will cause a drop in China's first quarter economic growth, but the impact can be controlled, with the GDP growth rate expected to stay above 5 percent in the first quarter of 2020. The country's economic growth rate is likely to remain robust at 6 percent for the year.

According to media reports the coronavirus outbreak during the Chinese New Year holiday season meant the holiday was prolonged. The virus' impact is mainly concentrated in a few areas, including tourism, transportation, education and aviation. Some may worry that domestic consumption will be undermined, but this will not be the case. Consumers continue to purchase agricultural products including meat and prices are stable.

The domestic e-commerce and delivery service industry will suffer limited impact. Cross-border e-commerce may be dealt a blow with reduced numbers of orders. The economists have maintained that in this unprecedented situation, it is important to maintain strong exports and a robust manufacturing industry. Entrepreneurs and employees are confident that they can map out their own paths. This confidence stems from China's governance capabilities. It also comes from the belief in China's institutional advantages. The confidence will unite the Chinese people. In the second half of 2020, China's epidemic-hit economy is expected to rebound, with a robust recovery in the third and fourth quarters, they said.

They have advised that after quelling the coronavirus, China should continue to implement schemes such as the Belt and Road initiative, free trade zones and free trade ports. Continuing these initiatives is vital for shareholder confidence, investor expectations for Chinese economic stability and China's business environment. China should also ensure investment projects which involve firms like Tesla and ExxonMobil. Those projects will build China's global image and boost our own confidence.

China should continue to deepen reform. The epidemic has revealed deficiencies in contingency measures to counter emergencies in some areas. However, China gave full play to its governance capabilities and institutional advantages when the entire country was mobilized. This is something that no other country could ever achieve. Down the road, the country's institutional potential can be fully released. The Chinese economy's momentum can rely make a comeback in the second half of 2020; the economists added.

There has been a great outpouring of sympathy for China throughout the world in the wake of the sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. The heroic efforts of the Chinese medical workers and the determination of the Chinese people amid the epidemic have been a model of courage for the world to admire. And efforts are being made around the world to provide needed supplies and to find a vaccine that could allow for the country to overcome this crisis. But, at the same time, those forces in the West who have been adamantly opposed to the admission of China into the pantheon of world powers have seen this catastrophe as an opportunity to throw new obstacles in the path of China's rise.