After Sultan Qaboos, Oman to retain its treasured neutrality

DUBAI: The sultanate of Oman, positioned geographically and diplomatically between the rival powers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, earned outsize influence under the long reign of the late Sultan Qaboos.

As the health of the royal ruler declined, and speculation turned to who would succeed him in the absence of an heir, there were questions over the future of Oman and its role as a valued mediator in a troubled region.

However, with the passing on Friday of the 79-year-old sultan and the swift appointment of like-minded cousin Haitham bin Tariq as his successor, observers say Oman appears on track to retain its treasured status as a neutral peacemaker.

To do so though, the new sultan will need to navigate tricky geopolitical terrain as well as address economic challenges facing his own country. During his half-century reign, Sultan Qaboos thoroughly modernised his country, but also forged a broader role as a go-between in regional and international crises.

In the high-stakes Iran nuclear crisis, Oman played a discreet role in dialogue between Tehran and Washington, leading to the 2015 deal involving Western powers, which three years later was unilaterally abandoned by US President Donald Trump. In his first speech on Saturday, the new sultan pledged to follow in the footsteps of his influential predecessor. He expressed support for "our country´s foreign policy of peaceful living among nations and peoples... and not interfering in the internal affairs of others".

And he said that Oman would continue to "promote peaceful solutions" to regional and global crises. Sultan Qaboos was unmarried and had no apparent heir, meaning that the succession was decided in a meeting of the royal family who opted to open a sealed letter Qaboos had prepared, detailing his preference.

The speed of the transition is seen as a sign that 65-year-old Haitham has the backing he will need to steer the country and maintain its diplomatic standing. "The sultanate of Oman will no doubt continue to follow the same policy, from which it has benefited so much," said Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor at the University of Kuwait and an associate researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center.

The royal family´s prompt announcement is a "message to its citizens and neighbours to say that the situation is under control".

Apart from guiding Oman´s foreign policy, Haitham also faces the task of rolling out "Vision 2040", a roadmap for social and economic reforms designed to address high deficits, international debt and youth unemployment. "The best guarantor of Oman´s neutrality will be a successful economic restructuring that draws upon its people and avoids too much reliance on any other power," said Kristin Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Sultan Qaboos, slight in stature but usually resplendent in sumptuous robes and colourful turbans, was synonymous with Oman´s international profile and many of the tributes since his passing have struck a warm and personal note.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Muscat Sunday to pay his respects, recalled a meeting with Qaboos where he was "struck by his commitment to peace and understanding between nations and between faiths".