Can PPP retain the top slot in Senate?

Can the opposition, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), retain its position in the Senate or will the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) consolidate its grip on Parliament after getting its nominee elected as chairman would be determined in the next 72 hours, but the defeat of the government would be a major setback for Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.
Chairman Senate is the most prestigious office in the country after the president and the prime minister’s office, but it took the PPP almost 15 years since 1985 non party based elections to get its hold in the Senate.
While Waseem Sajjad still holds the record of being chairman for 12 years, the PPP holds the record of getting the first chairman elected after 1973 Constitution followed by Farooq H. Naik and Nayyar Bokhari, but after a huge gap.
If the Upper House remains with the opposition, it can be good for democracy provided it does not create much problem for the government in legislation. But, if the ruling party consolidated its position in both the Houses, it will be a big test for Sharifs to deliver without much hindrance.
As the situation stands today, the PPP and its allies have an edge over the PML-N and its coalition partners. If things stand as these are today, the opposition may not find much difficulty in retaining its strength.
The PPP, which had 40 senators before March 5 elections, maintained its supremacy in the Upper House, as it emerged as the single largest party with 27 seats, one more than the ruling PML-N. This scenario has made the election of the chairman and deputy chairman, more interesting unless all sides reached some kind of consensus.
But, it is difficult to predict the final outcome, as political maneuvering is at its best, both at the Zardari House, Islamabad and at the PM House. Both sides are doing their best to rope in smaller parties while uncertainty prevails over the fate of the four Senate seats for Fata.
As the position stands today, the opposition has an upper hand, thanks to some poor handling of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his allies like the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F). For the PPP, the defeat may further confine them to Sindh, as they have already lost strength in the National Assembly and three provincial assemblies — the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The victory to either of the two parties would help them in going to the forthcoming local bodies elections with an important win.In 2008, despite having simple majority in the National Assembly, the PPP managed to get all the top slots including president, prime minister, speaker and deputy speaker of the National Assembly and chairman Senate. It completed its term and kept its coalition partners intact and showed tolerance towards the opposition, the judiciary and the media.
The PML-N has already got its president, prime minister and speaker and deputy speaker of the National Assembly and one more win — the office of chairman Senate — will strengthen its position.
Many political pundits, including those in the anti-PPP camp, gave credit to the former president Asif Ali Zardari for better “adjustments.” He again has a job to do, which may not be easy, considering the PPP in the opposition and traditionally it’s the party in power which normally has an upper hand.
So, where the PML-N is going wrong and what will happen, if they lost the crucial election on March 12?The government has already committed a blunder in Fata case by issuing a presidential order. Now, will the elections for the four Fata senators be held before the election of chairman or not? How can the Election Commission of Pakistan keep Fata out of the Senate? Thus, if the Fata senators are elected before the election of chairman the ruling party may face more problems.
Secondly, the government has so far failed to win back its ally — Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. It has not mended its fences with the PML-Q and has also failed to win over the MQM. All these three parties have some 21 senators. Besides, what the government has so far “offered” to the independent senators.
Differences with JUI-F emerged after the 21st Amendment and on the National Action Plan (NAP). The JUI-F also wants government to re-address the issue of “madrassas.” After the Senate elections, Fazlur Rehman’s demands may increase.
The MQM case would have been much easier had the prime minister made a telephone call to Altaf Hussain. The two leaders have not spoken to each other for almost two years.
The MQM, with eight senators, has kept its door open and formed a six-member committee to negotiate with different parties. In the past, efforts were made to bring the PML and MQM closer but failed at the last minute.
If the PML-N leaders can call PML-Q Secretary General Mushahid Hussain Syed to discuss the election of chairman Senate, why the prime minister can’t make a call to Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain?
Thirdly, the PML-N has also failed to address issues within the party, which caused an upset in Bal0chistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. They are facing serious defections in the party in Balochistan, KP and even in Sindh.
All this is making the political scenario difficult for the PML-N unless they change their political approach. Politics is the game of the possible but Mian Nawaz Sharif has made the game “impossible” for himself and his party.
On the other hand, despite losing 2013 elections and facing serious problems in all the provinces except in Sindh, Asif Ali Zardari played his cards well. He kept his allies intact including the PML-Q, Awami National Party, and MQM after 2013 elections. Even his relations with Maulana Fazlur Rehman are much better than the JUI leader’s relations with Nawaz Sharif.
The situation has become more interesting after the PTI’s decision, which has six senators and Jamaat-e-Islami one, to boycott the election. They have decided to form an independent group but whether their decision to stay out of the race is a political decision or not, needs to be debated.
If the elections for the four Fata seats are not held before the chairman polls, it means 12 votes will not be cast in the elections, four from Fata and seven from the KP. Will it suit the PPP or the PML-N? In the present number game it may go in favor of the PPP, which has already tightened its grip.
What the PML-N can offer to the JUI-F and MQM having 14 votes?
Zardari has already made a telephone call to Altaf Hussain and twice met Fazlur Rehman. The MQM will join the Sindh government after the final phase of Senate election is over.
The JUI-F, which is in the coalition government at the center, will have to make a final decision within 48 hours. If they decide to go with the PPP, they may lose the government, as PML-N may break the alliance after the elections.
So, what can be the possible consensus? It all depends on the number games for which the role of the prime minister is crucial. If he fails in his political moves, we may see the opposition retaining the top slot of the Senate — something which the PML-N may not like to see.
The writer is the senior analyst and columnist for GEO, The News and Jang.