Central and West Asia in 2017

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the five countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan – had their own dictatorships.

All of them have been ruled by one or the other dictator during the past quarter of a century. For example, in Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled since 1989, first as head of the communist party and then, since 1991, as the first and to date the last president. In terms of population, the largest country of Central Asia is Uzbekistan with Tashkent as its capital where Islam Karimov ruled from 1989 to 2016.

In 2017, Uzbekistan was perhaps the only Central Asian country that saw some changes. The new president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has released many political prisoners and has promised to put the country on the road to democracy. Only time will show to what extent these promises materialise, but at least for now he has taken many positive steps. He has relatively freed the media, has launched a campaign against corruption and reduced forced labour for potato picking, a relic from the Soviet times. In the other Central Asian countries, the situation remained the same.

Nazarbayev is still going strong in Kazakhstan and trying to make his new capital, Astana, the new Dubai. His country has tremendous natural resources, and oil and gas flow like anything. All this makes Astana look like a capital city of any modern Western country. The situation in the previous capital, Alma Ata, has deteriorated and civic facilities are on the decline. Nazarbayev does not seem to have any intention of quitting his power anytime soon, and he may continue exploiting his people right till his own end.

In West Asia, from Iran to Lebanon, the entire region has witnessed blood and gore during the past 15 years. Only Iran appears to be relatively better than others and at peace with itself. The US has been trying its best to use Arab countries to push Iran too into the abyss of war but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has been taking each step cautiously. He is attempting to salvage the nuclear agreement his government has concluded with the Western powers, since the uninterrupted supply of foreign exchange depends on the survival of this agreement.

US President Trump has, since assuming power, repeatedly issued threats to dismantle the nuclear accord with Iran. Iran is also accused of fomenting civil wars in Syria and Yemen thorough proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries fear increasing Shia influence in their countries. The other two big countries of West Asia – Iraq and Syria – continued to suffer from internecine wars this year. Though it has been over 15 years since Saddam Husain was toppled after the American invasion of Iraq, the security situation is much worse than what it used to be before the American intervention.

Saddam Husain was accused of killing a few thousand people, but after the American occupation the number of causalities has reached hundreds of thousands, if not millions. Almost the same is the situation in Syria, where in 2017 too, all sorts of belligerent groups have been at each other’s throats. America and Russia have made Syria their own battleground, and the people of Syria continued to remain their cannon fodder. At the end of 2017, there appears to be no end in sight for the Syrian civil war.

Though, the Islamic State (IS) has been routed from most of Syria, there is still a chance of their resurgence. The Arabian Peninsula includes in its fold – in addition to Saudi Arabia – the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Yemen. In 2017, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) witnessed unprecedented changes. First, the appointment of a new crown prince unleashed a plethora of reforms – both economic and social. These far-reaching changes, brought about by the 32-year-old son of the incumbent king, have endeared him to common people especially to young women.

The crown prince initiated the process of liberalisation of society by allowing Saudi women to drive. The next step was the opening of stadiums to women, and the establishment of cinemas and theatres for films and musical concerts. All this has enhanced the public standing of the crown prince. Then he initiated a crackdown on ‘corruption’ by targeting dozens of rich princes whose wealth amounts to billions of dollars. These ‘corrupt’ princes’ have been confined to a luxurious hotel where the terms of their release are being negotiated. The crown prince is demanding that they pay the money accumulated through ‘corruption’ or else.

So, in a way these kidnapped princes must pay ransom to secure their release, failing which they are likely to remain under confinement. Some of them have already started paying up the extortion money and have been released. One exception is perhaps the richest prince, Al-Waleed bin Talal, who has been conspicuous by his absence in the news by the end of 2017. On another front in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen in 2017 remained a soft target for the Saudi forces. Repeated air raids on Yemen have rendered air and sea ports dysfunctional, resulting in acute shortages of food and medicines. Cholera and other epidemics are spreading and taking their toll in the thousands.

Interestingly, some Muslim countries that shed a tear or two for the plight of the Muslims in Myanmar and the Philippines are not even ready to say a couple of words for the people of Yemen. The so-called Islamic alliance of over 40 Muslim countries led by Pakistan’s former army chief, General Raheel Sharif, is in deep slumber over Yemen. It is neither bothered about Yemen nor perturbed at the First Qibla for Muslims in Jerusalem.

This brings us to the last big news about West Asia: the American recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. In 2018, there will likely be more anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans.

The writer holds a PhD from theUniversity of Birmingham, UK and works in Islamabad.

Email: Mnazir1964@yahoo.co.uk