Pressure politics

Amidst speculation about early elections, the continuing legal woes of the Sharif family and the failure to pass a constitutional amendment to begin the process of delimitation, the run-up to next year’s general elections were already full of intrigue. The release of the judicial report in the Model Town killings of 2014 has only added to the speculation. Tahirul Qadri is back in Lahore and ready to take to the streets. PPP Co-chairperson Asif Zardari was first to announce support for the Pakistan Awami Tehreek chief, appearing with him at a press conference in Lahore and saying he would be ready to protest with Qadri. Imran Khan quickly followed suit during his rally in Jaranwala. Smaller parties like the PML-Q and Pak Sarzameen Party are following suit. Is this, then, the beginning of a grand electoral alliance to run together against the PML-N? As much talk as there is of an anti-government coalition being cobbled together, it is far too early to believe these parties can present a united front. The PPP and PAT may have made common cause after the release of the Model Town report but, before he had ever protested against the PML-N government, Qadri first held a dharna in Islamabad demanding the ouster of the PPP government. For Zardari now to say that Qadri has supported democracy in every era is hard to take seriously given their history.

It is equally difficult to see the PPP and PTI working together. At every rally, Imran Khan reiterates that he considers Zardari as corrupt as Nawaz and will be going after him too. Right now, both parties have signed up with Qadri for his one-point agenda of demanding Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s resignation. To see this alliance reaching agreement on any point other than that is improbable, especially as the elections draw nearer. Qadri, for all his abilities to bring people out on the streets, is irrelevant as an electoral force. The PPP and PTI will be chasing the same vote bank in Punjab and neither will want to cede ground to the other. The one hope the opposition parties will be holding out for is the possibility of defections from the PML-N. The flood of desertions some had predicted after the Panama Papers verdict is yet to materialise but the few people who have left the party claim more will follow. That will surely be playing into the calculations of all those who have joined forces with Qadri. The opposition parties want to ramp up the pressure on the government but it is still too early to believe that can force early elections or that this partnership can last beyond the immediate future.