Emerging Indo-US alliance encouraging India in its aggressive designs

KARACHI: The most likely danger of a nuclear crisis in South Asia stems from the latest revolt of the Kashmiris in the India-held Kashmir and its mass suppression by India. This observation was made by former ambassador Munir Akram on the second---and final----day of the conference, titled “Peace in South Asia: opportunities and challenges” held to coincide with the 70th anniversary of the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) at a local hotel.
He said that India’s increasing ceasefire violations along the LoC, its threats to launch “surgical strikes” against Pakistan, its “Cold Start” Doctrine, and threats of a “limited war”, were indications in that direction. The recent emerging Indo-US alliance had encouraged India all the more in her aggressive designs, Akram said. An India-Pakistan conflict confrontation could rapidly escalate to the nuclear level due to the asymmetry in conventional forces. This, he said, would serve as a strong incentive for the US to seize and destroy Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
To preserve credible deterrence, he said, several steps are needed on the part of Pakistan, like: i)massive deployment of artillery and short-range conventional missiles to respond to an Indian Cold Start attack ii) multiply its short, medium range and long range missiles iii) continue the production of fissile materials to provide warheads for its missile force iv) ‘pre-mate’ some nuclear weapons to delivery systems; v) deploy one or more missile systems to protect command and control centres.
The world community, he said, had a vital interest in preventing a nuclear war in South Asia and as such, must hasten a resolution of the Kashmir dispute in accordance with the UN Resolutions on Kashmir, and balanced arms control and disarmament measures between the two countries.
The next session was titled, “Combating terrorism” and was chaired by Lt-Gen (retd) Talat Masood, former Secretary for Defence Production. Gen. Masood said, “even though the threat has been contained by the armed forces, the ideological threat remains”. Pakistan, he said, had taken some very bold decisions in the two Waziristans and FATA, but still, he said, there were major challenges.
Lt-Gen (retd) Tariq Khan said that terrorism has assumed a critical place in international affairs and has become a critical global concern but Pakistan had rarely put out a cogent narrative explaining its position on the subject. He added, “we can’t go on increasing summary military courts and as such, have to expand and empower the judiciary to the maximum to deal with terrorism cases”. Military solution to terrorism, he said, has to be fully complemented by strong governmental measures.
Noted journalists Rahimulah Yusufzai, listed the measures like the Zarb-e-Azb and the Raddul Fassad, launched by the Pakistan Army, the latter launched by the army in February 2017. He said that to date, there had been 16 major operations and about a dozen peace accords concluded mostly secretly. He said “we should not hold peace talks without building a consensus”.
Former ambassador Shafqat Kakakehl, currently the chairman of the Sustainable Policy Development Institute (SDPI), said the bulk of Pakistan’s fresh water supplies, he said, passed through India and Afghanistan. Pakistan, he said, must endeavour to preserve the Indus Waters Treaty. It should also, he said, engage in parleys with Afghanistan to obtain undiminished access to the waters of the Kabul and the Kurram rivers. The internal and external aspects of Pakistan’s water woes, both in terms of per-capita availability and quality must receive urgent attention. Pakistan, he said, must engage with India and Afghanistan. The biggest driver of water scarcity, he said, was burgeoning population.