Challenges for the federation

The Shehbaz Sharif-led PML-N government seems confident of completing its five-year tenure, buoyed by economic indicators showing some signs of stability and a recent dip in electricity prices that it hopes will provide some much-needed relief to the public. The internal chaos within the PTI has also granted the ruling coalition some breathing room. Yet, beneath this surface of apparent calm lies a series of deepening political and administrative cracks that the government cannot afford to ignore — cracks that threaten the very fabric of the federation. The most recent controversy stems from the proposed construction of six canals on the Indus River, aimed at irrigating the Cholistan desert. The federal government sees this as a development initiative but the PPP and nationalist parties from Sindh view it as a direct threat to the equitable distribution of water resources. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has categorically opposed the project, warning that the PPP will not support the federal budget if it is not consulted on development planning — both for the centre and the provinces. In a rare public rebuke, President Asif Ali Zardari also voiced his opposition during his address to the joint session of parliament.

This is not a minor intra-coalition disagreement but representative of a fundamental issue of federal governance: how the centre engages with — or ignores — its federating units. Water, in particular, is a historically contentious issue. The Indus River System has long been the lifeline for Pakistan’s agrarian economy, and any real or perceived tampering with its distribution system has always led to deep resentment. By pushing ahead with such a controversial project without consensus, the federal government is risking political backlash and courting a legitimacy crisis in key provinces. While the PPP may still be weighing its options, the warning signs are flashing red. Political observers have already flagged the Cholistan Canal project as a potential wedge that could unravel the ruling coalition if not handled with caution. Press conferences have already turned up the heat, with PML-N and PPP leaders lobbing accusations at one another. Though Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has reportedly tried to allay PPP concerns, the damage may already have been done.

While the government tries to contain dissent within its ranks, it is simultaneously mishandling another critical front: Balochistan. The provincial government’s threat to arrest BNP-M leader Sardar Akhtar Mengal if his party proceeds with a protest march to Quetta is yet another example of just how flawed the state's policies are regarding the Baloch. Mengal’s call for justice over the imprisonment of Baloch activists should not be met with repression. Threatening arrest is another accelerant to unrest. Heavy-handedness in a province like Balochistan there will only deepen the alienation of an already marginalised population. The situation requires open dialogue, trust-building and meaningful reform — not arrests and coercion. From terrorism in KP to economic woes, Pakistan faces challenges on multiple fronts. National unity and consensus-building should be the government’s top priority. But unity cannot be forged by ignoring provincial concerns, silencing dissent or undermining political allies. The Cholistan Canal controversy and the unrest in Balochistan are examples of the fact that governance in Pakistan must respect the spirit of federalism. The PML-N-led government must abandon unilateral decision-making, engage all stakeholders in genuine dialogue, and resist the temptation to treat opposition as an inconvenience.