Weekly inflation declines 0.36pc as chicken prices drop

KARACHI: Weekly inflation registered a slight decrease of 0.36 percent but went up 45.36 percent on annualised basis during the seven-day period ended March 30, official data showed on Friday.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data attributed the decline in the sensitive price indicator (SPI) to the drop in prices of onions (15.10 percent), chicken (11.96 percent), tomatoes (10.26 percent), LPG (1.35 percent), cooking oil 5 litre (1.24 percent), vegetable ghee 1kg (1.07 percent), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (0.77 percent), pulse gram (0.42 percent), firewood (0.35 percent), pulse moong (0.22 percent) and mustard oil (0.17 percent).

On the other hand, the PBS noted a increase in the prices of bananas (7.54 percent), eggs (7.22 percent), mutton (2.39 percent), sugar (2.12 percent), wheat flour (1.91 percent), tea (1.79 percent), georgette and shirting (1.32 percent) each, milk fresh (1.12 percent) and beef (1.02 percent).

For the week under review, SPI was recorded at 249.66 points against 250.66 points registered last week and 171.82 points recorded during the week ended March 31, 2022.

Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities in his weekly note said SPI has experienced a slight decrease, mainly driven by 12 percent and 15 percent reduction in chicken and onion prices, respectively. Chicken prices are at their lowest since the beginning of calendar year 2023.

“Although the supply chain of soybeans is yet to be fully restored, we believe that the primary factor behind the decrease in chicken prices is lower demand due to record high prices in recent months,” he said. With the onset of Ramazan, food prices are expected to remain high. “We expect March 2023 CPI (consumer price index) to come at 35.8 percent on YoY basis,” Rauf added.

PBS compiles SPI via collecting prices of 51 essential items from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country.

During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 23 (45.10 percent) items increased, 11 (21.57 percent) items decreased and prices of 17 (33.33 percent) items remained unchanged.

The PBS data attributed the YoY rise in SPI to the jump in the prices of cigarettes (165.88 percent), onions (127.07 percent), wheat flour (123.22 percent), gas charges for Q1 (108.38 percent), diesel (102.84 percent), tea (98.08 percent), eggs (96.67 percent), bananas (94.89 percent), broken basmati rice (83.65 percent), petrol (81.17 percent), rice irri-6/9 (79.17 percent), pulse moong (67.85 percent) and potatoes (56.44 percent).

Decrease was observed in the prices of tomatoes (10.88 percent) and chili powder (9.56 percent).

For the groups spending up to Rs17,732; Rs17,733-22,888; Rs22,889-29,517; Rs29,518-44,175; and above Rs44,175; YoY SPI increased 41.72, 44.60, 44.78, 45.04, and 47.28 percent respectively.