City-killer asteroid’s odds of hitting Moon surge to 30%

Scientists have issued a chilling warning regarding the city-killier asteroid, 2024 YR4, currently racing toward the moon, stating that the collision probability could rise up to 30 per cent.

The 220-foot space rock will reach closest to the moon on December 22, 2032 and currently there exists a 4 per cent chance that it might hit lunar surface.

Experts believe that there exists only one chance between February 18 and 26 next year to observe YR4 through the James Webb Space Telescope and predict its trajectory. It will then move beyond the view of Earth’s telescopes until 2028.

Researchers have warned that if the city-killer asteroid collides with the moon’s surface, it could shower Earth with lunar shrapnel and also carve a 0.6 mile wide crater.

Originally discovered in December 2024, YR4 was the only asteroid to have reached nearly 32 per cent probability of hitting the Earth. However, later observations reduced that probability to zero.

Dr Andrew Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University analysed how observing the asteroid would change the collision probability.

He concluded that there exists an 80 per cent chance that impact odds would reduce to zero; however, there exists a five per cent chance that chances of YR4 hitting the moon could increase up to 30 per cent.

Several plans are in place if danger is detected as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has already considered striking it with a nuclear weapon to protect the Earth.