The new great game

The US is back in the Asia-Pacific and plans to remain engaged in the region on a permanent basis. Its rebalance strategy in the region,                                                        particularly its deliberate move to take sides in the disputes between the littoral states of the South China Sea, repudiation of Chinese actions in the building of artificial islands and its naval patrol, and supporting Japan in its dispute on the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, is fast becoming a major irritant in the relations between China and the US.

The US and its allies also object to the alleged restrictions on freedom of navigation and the militarising of the South China Sea. The US navy has also made some provocative moves of late, raising the friction between the two navies.

US Defence Secretary Ash Carter, speaking in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a regional security forum, on June 4 said that any action by China to reclaim land in the Scarborough Shoal, an outcrop in the disputed area, would have consequences. He said the “US will remain the most powerful military and main underwriter of security in the region for decades to come and there should be no doubt about it”.

Japan’s Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said his country would help South East Asian nations build their security capabilities to deal with what he called unilateral, dangerous and coercive action in the South China Sea. He said: “In the South China Sea we have been witnessing large-scale and rapid land reclamation, building of outposts and utilization of them for military purposes”.

The G-7 summit in Japan, in its declaration issued on May 27 this year, also expressed similar concerns on the situation in the South China Sea: “We will continue to observe the situation in East and South China Sea and are concerned by any unilateral actions, such as large scale land reclamations, which change the status quo and increase tensions.

Reportedly, China protested with Japan over the G-7 declaration. A spokesperson of the Chinese foreign ministry said: “we have expounded our position on the G-7 summit’s behaviour of playing up relevant maritime issues and creating regional tension. China’s economy sustains a medium-to-high speed growth. Its contribution to the world economic recovery is recognised by all. We hope that G7 members including Japan can approach relevant issues in an objective and unbiased way and stop issuing irresponsible remarks.”

The littoral states of the South China Sea including China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have territorial claims in the area. The South China Sea also boasts of trade worth trillions of dollars passing through it. Analysts believe that more than the security of the region, the US’s increased focus on the area is due to its oil and gas resources which the US is salivating over to exploit. The focus is also there due to its ‘contain China policy’.

The argument is logically very strong. An imperialist power like the US would prefer to foment conflict and then exploit the ensuing situations to its advantage. If a conflict erupts in the area, the biggest losers will be the countries of the region, who have rightly been voicing concern over the unfolding scenario.

Apart from territorial disputes among the littoral states of the South China Sea, another very worrying element is the Japan-China dispute over eight uninhabited islands known as the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. According to Japan, it surveyed the island for about 10 years in the 19th century and finding them uninhabited put up a sovereignty marker on January 14, 1895 and formally incorporated the islands into its territory.

After World War II, Japan renounced claim to a number of territories and islands, including Taiwan in the 1951 treaty of San Francisco. These islands, however, came under US trusteeship and were returned to Japan in 1971 under the Okinawa reversion deal. They maintain that China did not object to the San Francisco Treaty and started making the claim after the 1970s when oil and gas reserves in the area became known.

China, however, contends that the islands have been part of its territory since ancient times, serving as important fishing ground administered by the province of Taiwan, which was ceded to Japan in the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895 after the Sino-Japan war. The islands should have been returned too, when Taiwan was returned in the Treaty of Francisco. According to Beijing, Taiwanese leader Chiang Kai-shek did not raise any objection over the Okinawa reversion deal, because he depended on the US for support. It is interesting to note that Taiwan also claims the islands separately.

Japan and the US forged a military alliance in 1960 under which the US agreed to defend Japan in the event of an attack in return for military bases in Japan. However, on US insistence Japan has taken a fateful step towards becoming a normal power by adopting the doctrine of ‘collective self-defence’. Japan has also eased restrictions on arms exports, clearing the way for more robust defence cooperation with regional partners, possibly developing joint ventures in the defence industry.

More capable countries such as Australia and India could benefit from sophisticated Japanese defence technology and joint-ventures while smaller countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines may benefit from Japanese assistance in terms of developing domain awareness and minimum deterrence capabilities within their maritime jurisdictions.

All these developments and possibilities constitute ominous portents for peace and security in the region. China rightly and justifiably fears Japan’s possible relapse into its imperialist past and the US’s sinister intentions in the region. However, despite these provocations, China remains a strong proponent of resolving disputes between states through bilateral arrangements without interference from outside powers – while at the same time firmly defending its territorial claims.

From the historic perspective, the Chinese claim of sovereignty over Xisha, Nansha, Zhongsha and Dongsha in the South China Sea and over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea cannot be dismissed lightly as they are corroborated by the ancient written history of the area. The reclamation of the islands cannot be called into question by any international law. China has also never restricted navigational freedom as alleged by the US and its allies. It is pertinent to mention that China has already settled its maritime delimitation disputes with 12 littoral states through bilateral negotiations.

The Chinese logic of settling disputes bilaterally makes sense as it precludes chances of foreign interference and escalation of the conflict. The new Chinese leadership firmly believes in partnership with the countries of the region and beyond.

The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative are a testimony of China’s intentions. But unfortunately the US is bent upon destroying peace and tranquillity in the South China Sea as well as thwarting the CPEC initiative through a clandestine collusion with India. A new great game has been set rolling. That makes it imperative for China and Pakistan to put up collective resistance to make sure that peace and progress in the region do not fall prey to the conspiracies of the US and its allies.

India’s efforts to dominate the Indian Ocean will probably compel Pakistan to equip its navy for a befitting response. The statement of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the US Congress – that what India was doing in the Indian Ocean served US interests – cannot be allowed to go unheeded.

The writer is a freelance contributor.

Email: ashpak10@gmail.com