Heavy rains may halve water shortage in Rabi

LAHORE: On the back of extensive and widespread rains and snow spells, Indus River System Authority (IRSA) might reassess water shortage estimate by almost half for ongoing Rabi season, ending March 31, 2022, officials said on Monday.

According to a senior official, meeting of Irsa’s Advisory Committee has been convened on January 25 to reassess river water availability, which was earlier pegged at 28 percent less against the average uses.

With extensive rainfall recorded in all four provinces of the country, coupled with several spells of snow in the catchment area, water inflows have increased significantly during last about a week, while there are projections that flows would be relatively healthier up to late Rabi season.

The official said such changing weather projections may have had compelled water managers to reevaluate seasonal shortages to about 15 percent from earlier 28 percent. However, final decision in this connection is expected to be taken in the next Tuesday’s meeting of the Irsa after consultation with provinces and relevant departments.

River flows are also expected to be much healthier in early Kharif season due to snow at low to medium reaches, which will start melting earlier, supplying better flows into main rivers. Rain also amused farmers, who have breathed a sigh of relief amid shortage of urea fertiliser, as nitrogen requirement of plants would also be partly met with the downpour.

There has been visible improvement in water impounding in major dams following rains if compared with what Irsa earlier anticipated. For instance, water level of Tarbela Dam should have been 1420 feet above mean sea level on January 16 as per projections. However, rains have helped conservation of water up to 1433 feet.

Annual practice of canal closure has been extended by the authorities in Punjab province as water demand ebbed. Keeping in view consistent moist conditions and prediction of one or two more rain systems entering the country up to end of the current month, annual canal closure in the Punjab province has been extended for two weeks by the provincial Irrigation Department. The half of canals of Mangla Command Area and several main canals emanating from Tarbela distribution system will now be reopened by January 31 instead of planned date of January 15.

Greater quantity of water will trickle down up to Indus Delta too because of excessive flows as water level surged for several days in Chenab and Kabul Rivers that lacked storage capacity. Meanwhile, according to Pakistan Meteorological Department’s seasonal agro-climate outlook for January to May, 2022, Central Punjab would receive several spells of light to moderate (with few spells of light downpour) rainfall during the season. The prediction of rainfall during the early stages of the crop is expected to prove helpful. Similarly, Southern Punjab would receive light to moderate rainfalls during the ongoing month of January.

The Potohar Region, which is mainly dependent on rains for meeting water requirement, may receive several light to moderate spells with few heavy downpours during the period. During February, wheat in the region is generally in reproductive stages so the rain will benefit the standing crop.

As per latest advisory issued by Meteorological Department about rain/snowfall during the coming week, a weather system of light to moderate intensity is expected to approach western and upper parts of the country from Tuesday and may persist in upper parts till Thursday. Under the influence of this weather system, rain/snow is expected in several districts of Balochistan on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Rain with snowfalls over the hills (light to moderate falls) is expected in Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad, Chitral, Dir, Kalam, Swat, Malakand, Kohistan, Shangla, Buner, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Swabi, Mardan, Nowshera, Peshawar, Charsadda, Bajaur, Kurram, Waziristan, Kohat, Bannu, Dera Ismail Khan, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, Hafizabad, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, Narowal, Lahore, and Kasur from Tuesday to Thursday.

Light to moderate snowfall is expected in Murree, Galliyat, Nathiagali, Kaghan, Naran, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Astore, Hunza, Gilgit, Neelum Valley, Bagh, and Haveli districts from Tuesday (night) to Thursday. The possible impacts of rain for the wheat and other crops in Barani (rain-dependent) and irrigated areas is said to be positive.