Transplant at the heart of Asia

Much like a patient suffering through serious heart pain feels very comfortable after a successful transplant, something similar occurred at the Heart of Asia Conference in Islamabad.

All the usually grim faces and irritated foreign offices sat together with broad smiles. These smiles and the warmth they seemed to show were not artificial. They were, instead, a result of the realisation that only a good atmosphere and talking to each other can bring about a win-win situation.

Just a week before, it was unthinkable to have Dr Ashraf Ghani in Islamabad; now he was received in Islamabad with a red-carpet reception, guard of honour and a 21-gun salute. Sushma Swaraj and Sartaj Aziz were not ready to shake hands only a few days ago, and now they hold hands like two friends meeting after a long separation.

It is an interesting story – what happened at the Heart of Asia, why all rivals greeted each other and, most importantly, what is the future of all the promises made at the conference?

The first thing to know is that all this did not just happen by chance. Besides, this warmth is not the result of the Heart of Asia Conference but rather a dictate of the realisation by all major players that without cooperation there is no route to success. Even if there was no such conference scheduled, the major players would have had to meet through some other event.

And the player that made all this change possible is indeed the United States. It forced Dr Ghani to review his stance on Pakistan. US policymakers believe that in Afghanistan their failure is mainly due to Pakistan’s policy responses. Yet, it is also believed that at this juncture, the US cannot achieve its major goals without the support of Pakistan. This resulted in the agreement between the US and Pakistan, though for very different reasons, over talks with the Taliban.

There are internal and external factors that are forcing the US into this hurried decision-making. US presidential elections are approaching, and Obama wishes for any settlement in Afghanistan, no matter how artificial – as was in Iraq – for a face-saving of his foreign policy decisions. He would hate to leave Afghanistan in fire.

Besides political concerns, the US also has serious issues in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is getting weak day by day and the Taliban are getting stronger. If the Afghan issue was left without a diplomatic and political solution, within a year or more the country would again be at the centre stage for a bloody internal war.

The US thus realised – albeit a little late – that it was the Afghan government that had halted the dialogue process with the Taliban, a dialogue that was progressing well under the supervision of China and the US. American policymakers were very unhappy over the delay in the dialogue process and kept asking Pakistan to restart the process. But Pakistan made it clear that it would not be possible without a positive move from the Afghan government. Over this the US assured PM Nawaz and COAS Sharif, during their visits to Washington, that the Americans would ensure a positive move from Afghanistan.

This change was also natural since in Afghanistan the circle of anger has been completed. Seeing internal pressure, Dr Ghani ended the dialogue process using Mullah Omar’s death as an excuse. That, however, did not help Ghani. The Taliban were now more ruthless about proving their presence and control.

Internally Ghani faced more political strife, and Pakistan refused to act as a passive and apologetic partner in this regional peace project. And when Afghanistan reached out to India, it faced a cold shoulder. Thus internally Afghanistan was left with no option but to talk again with Pakistan and resolve its issues with the Taliban.

Almost the same degree of pressure was felt in Pakistan. Pakistan was left with no other option but to talk with Afghanistan. The Taliban now cannot rule in Afghanistan on their own. Also, in case of any turmoil in Afghanistan, it is Pakistan that suffers the most.

The Indian story is even more interesting. The transformation of India is a result of internal and external pressures. It is evident that Narendra Modi enjoys the full support of the corporate sector in India. In the last one year the treatment of minorities in India has badly damaged the country’s image globally. This is akin to suicide for the corporate sector.

So, the corporate sector pressurised the Indian government to change its policies. On the other side, the Pakistan government was forced by both military and media to pay back with an equal response. The pressure was so great that even a peace lover like myself wrote that Pakistan needs not to beg for talks or cricket matches with India. The decisive external force, though, was US pressure over India.

The US did this keeping in mind Afghanistan, having reached the conclusion that Pakistan’s inability to deliver the promised targets was mainly due to Indian interference in Afghanistan. As a first move the US asked Dr Ghani to address Pakistani apprehensions about Indian role in Afghanistan. But it appeared that without taking India onboard, it would be very difficult to maintain good relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

When the US took this matter up with Pakistan, the latter refused plainly on the ground that when the eastern border is unsafe, Pakistan cannot allow its western border to be under by Indian influence. The US then decided to directly ask India to ensure good relations with Pakistan.

So now we stand at a very optimistic juncture. Relations with Afghanistan have started right from the point where they broke off. So is the case with India. But this long diplomatic pause among these three nations has made the task of negotiations more difficult. It is really a test of leadership to maintain good relations and achieve regional peace.

We can look at this as the last chance for peace and prosperity in the region. Incompetence on the part of any leader would result not only in internal political crises and regional repercussions but would also invite global pressure.

Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Taliban should understand that such a rare opportunity for restoring peace does not come every day.

The writer works for Geo TV.

Email: saleem.safi@janggroup.com.pk