Three killed in Kabul suicide bombing

KABUL: A suicide bomber killed at least three people and wounded 15 others after detonating explosives near a military outpost in Kabul on Wednesday, an official confirmed, in the first attack to rock the Afghan capital in weeks.Interior ministry spokesman Tareq Arian confirmed the toll, calling the blast "a crime by the enemy of Afghanistan against civilians during the month of Ramazan".

The attack appeared to target an Afghan special forces camp on the outskirts of Kabul, a security source told AFP. No group has claimed responsibility for the incident, but Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said they were investigating whether their fighters were behind the attack. The blast comes as violence has surged across Afghanistan, with the UN reporting earlier this week that attacks spiked in the country following the signing of a landmark US and Taliban agreement in late February that was supposed to lay the groundwork for a peace process.

Recent attacks have mostly been limited to rural areas and small towns. Under the US-Taliban deal, the insurgents have agreed not to attack cities. The agreement established a framework for bringing to an end America´s longest war following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 that toppled the Taliban regime only for them to re-emerge and launch a deadly insurgency. But planned talks between the Kabul government and Taliban have derailed in recent weeks.

Dozens of Afghan security forces and Taliban fighters have been dying almost daily with civilian casualties rising across the country as both sides ramp up operations. Kabul has been spared most of the violence. However, a string of attacks targeting minority groups proves the capital remains vulnerable to militants. Violence in Afghanistan is spiralling out of control and experts say a fragile peace process risks collapse.

The peace "process isn´t dead yet, but it is on life support", said Ashley Jackson, a researcher at the Overseas Development Institute. "It´s anyone´s guess how much time we have before it does begin to irrevocably fall apart." An Afghan official said that on average, the Taliban have launched 55 attacks each day since the deal signing in Doha on February 29, while a UN agency reported that Afghan forces are causing more child deaths than the insurgents -- mainly from air strikes and shelling. Analysts say the bloodshed was predictable -- or inevitable -- given the wording of the deal and the sweeping concessions the US granted its foe of more than 18 years.

Titled the "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan", the accord promises a full withdrawal of US and foreign forces without the Taliban committing to a ceasefire or even any reduction in violence. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants American troops home quickly, and the Taliban realise that as long as they don´t hit American or foreign troops, there are few consequences for continued attacks.

The insurgents see the agreement as "an end-of-occupation deal", said Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies think tank. "The US wants out of Afghanistan and it has ceded to all the Taliban demands." Nishank Motwani, a Kabul-based strategy and security expert, said the Doha agreement had emboldened and legitimised the Taliban, who think they have won the war so have little incentive to stop fighting.

"The Taliban fundamentally believe that victory is theirs," Motwani said. The deal means that in return for vague Taliban security commitments and a loose pledge they won´t let al-Qaeda and other militants threaten the US or its allies, the American military and all foreign forces will quit Afghanistan by July 2021 -- a process already under way. Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said Trump is determined to leave Afghanistan "come hell or high water", so the Taliban face few consequences for continued violence. "This isn´t a deal to win peace, this is simply a deal to give the Americans cover (to leave Afghanistan)," Rubin told AFP. "And if it means throwing the Afghans under the bus, so be it." The agreement also detailed several commitments from President Ashraf Ghani -- including a very lopsided prisoner swap -- even though US and Taliban negotiators systematically sidelined his government. The prisoner exchange would see Ghani release 5,000 Taliban prisoners, including many hardened fighters likely to return to the battlefield.

In exchange, the Taliban would release 1,000 Afghan security forces. The swap was supposed to be concluded by March 10, paving the way for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. A Taliban source said the insurgents had no intention of slowing violence until the prisoners are released, and reiterated there will be no talks unless that happened. "Ghani´s government is trying to test our nerves but we want to tell them that we are not tired, we are still fresh and ready to fight," the Taliban member told AFP. The insurgents have also rejected as "illogical" recent ceasefire calls from Kabul and the West, pointing to the fact the deal did not mandate one.

Fawzia Koofi, a member of the Afghan team selected for eventual negotiations, said another hurdle is the political crisis that has seen Ghani´s legitimacy challenged by his rival Abdullah Abdullah, who also claimed the presidency after an election marred by fraud allegations. "We are waiting for the political dispute to come to a possible consensus and end inside Afghanistan so that... we have a united position during the talks," she said.

Ghani´s administration has at least held some discussions with the Taliban on the prisoner issue and that gave grounds for hope, International Crisis Group analyst Andrew Watkins said.

"The most important thing for peace talks to succeed is for both sides to keep talking, constantly, even while fighting wages."