CPEC may be hit by Nawaz’s ouster, says Chinese expert

BEIJING: A Chinese expert has admitted that the recent political developments in Pakistan would affect the $50 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) because some "variable factors" would come into play. The expert also said that some political parties in Pakistan have cast doubt on some specific items in their economic cooperation with China.

Writing in the state-backed Global Times, Lan Jiang, a professor with the China West Normal University, said, the "disqualification of Nawaz Sharif would likely bring some uncertainties to the ongoing China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Pakistani political parties have some disagreements on the project, especially whether the east or west route of the project should be given priority."

He also expressed concern that some part of the $50 billion CPEC project might come under investigation and face uncertainties if the ruling party loses the next election in 2018. "The CPEC project would face some uncertainties if the next election in 2018 leads to a ruling party change," he said.

This view flies in the face of a recent assertion by the Chinese foreign ministry, which said that the unseating of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif would not affect the project. "We believe the China Pakistan cooperative partnership will not be affected by the change in the situation inside Pakistan," foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said on July 29.

Doubts have now surfaced in Beijing even though the new interim prime minister of Pakistan Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has been handpicked by Sharif to keep the seat warm for a few weeks until his brother, Shahid Abbasi, completes the formalities to be elected as prime minister.

Jiang also expressed concern that some aspects of CPEC may be investigated if the next general elections in 2018 throw up an opposition party in power in Pakistan. In addition, as opposition parties are incredulous about PML-N's behind-the-scene manipulation in project negotiations, the possibility of reviewing some projects' negotiation processes and conditions cannot be ruled out if an opposition party takes power.

The article noted that Shahbaz Sharif, who is expected to be the next prime minister of Pakistan, has "built more friendly ties with the Pakistan military". This is a significant statement coming from a Chinese expert because the military is known to be watching over CPEC's implementation and suppressing any sign of opposition to it.

Nawaz Sharif supported the east route for the economic corridor covering the provinces of Punjab and Sind but opposition parties favor the west route that passes through less-developed provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, he pointed out.

"But political differences on the CPEC route will not hinder bilateral relations as no political parties in Pakistan use anti-China sentiment as political stunt and all of them are working to advance the sustainable development of China-Pakistan ties," Jiang noted.

Meanwhile, international media has reported that India has pitched the idea of a transport corridor to Iran, Russia, the Caucasus region and Central Asia as an alternative to China’s “One Belt, One Road” project.

The proposed corridor, dubbed North-South, would stretch to Russia via Iran and connect the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean with the Caspian Sea, thus making the Islamic Republic a key player in the region.

In an interview with Sputnik Persian, Iranian political analyst Pir Mohammad Mollazehi spoke about the potential benefits the North-South project promised Iran and Russia. “What makes the North-South corridor so important is that it would bring transportation costs and travel time down by 30 percent. It is with these considerations in mind that Iran, Russia and India are now discussing the use of the Chabahar or Bender Abbas ports to bring cargoes to the Iranian ports on the Caspian Sea,” Pir Mohammad Mollazehi said.

He added that India was also looking for a way to deliver its goods by rail or by road to Russia and Europe. “They could also build a railway between Chabahar and Bender Abbas to haul cargoes to Khorasan and further on to Central Asia. We expect India to get more actively involved in this project and invest more in the development of the Chabahar port, which is a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia,” Pir Mohammad Mollazehi noted.

“On the other hand, India also needs a transport corridor to Russia and Europe. Russia would be able to deliver its goods via the North-South corridor faster and cheaper. This corridor could thus be used by all our three countries,” he added.

China's "One Belt, One Road" strategy was launched in 2013 and is aimed at developing infrastructure and strengthening ties between the Eurasian countries, focusing on the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road. In May 2015, Russia and China signed an agreement aimed at the combination of integration efforts of both the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road project.