Protests vs stability

Over the past decade, the PTI, under Imran Khan’s leadership, has consistently resorted to street protests as a core strategy for political mobilisation.

These protests have underscored the party’s grassroots appeal and its dissatisfaction with conventional political mechanisms. Yet, as the PTI announces another nationwide protest following Eidul Azha, revisiting the outcomes and implications of its protest-driven politics becomes critically important, given Pakistan’s current geopolitical and internal security challenges.

In 2014, the PTI orchestrated the ‘Azadi March’. Despite significant mobilisation, the protest ended without immediate electoral reform or then-PM Nawaz Sharif’s resignation. Nonetheless, it significantly elevated the PTI’s national political profile.

In 2016, the PTI again mobilised large-scale protests after the Panama Papers scandal, targeting corruption allegations against Nawaz Sharif. Although these protests were initially curtailed by government interventions, the sustained pressure contributed notably to Sharif’s disqualification by the Supreme Court in 2017.

Following Imran Khan’s removal via a parliamentary no-confidence vote, in May 2022, the PTI organised extensive protests alleging a foreign conspiracy and demanding early elections. While these protests reinforced the PTI's substantial public support, they failed to achieve immediate political objectives.

However, protests have also significantly damaged the PTI's reputation. Notably, the party’s May 2023 protest turned violent, culminating in unprecedented attacks on military installations, including an army cantonment. This severely undermined the PTI's standing among many previously sympathetic citizens.

Now, as the party prepares for new protests, critical reflections are required. By no means are we proposing opposition to genuine democratic movements. Democracy indeed thrives on vibrant civic participation, but it entails more profound responsibilities than mere street power demonstrations. Historically, political change driven primarily by street power has often produced unstable, ineffective regimes rather than sustainable, successful governance.

Pakistan faces significant geopolitical tensions, notably armed confrontations with India, alongside critical disputes over water resources. Such sensitive international conditions necessitate unity, focus and cohesion rather than domestic fragmentation. National protests at this juncture might dangerously distract the government, undermining Pakistan’s international negotiating position.

Further complicating matters is the spike in terrorism, particularly in Balochistan, reportedly sponsored by adversaries including India and Israel. Nationwide protests could inadvertently offer opportunities for terrorists to blend into public demonstrations, overwhelming security agencies and increasing the risk of devastating attacks.

Recent global sympathy and approval for Pakistan following its confrontation with India could also quickly dissipate should internal political chaos and terrorism become the prevailing international narrative. This would erode Pakistan’s diplomatic gains.

Instability in neighbouring Afghanistan also complicates Pakistan's security environment. Political fragmentation provides a fertile environment for extremist elements exploiting porous borders, thereby heightening regional insecurity. The PTI’s demonstrations, although politically driven, risk creating conditions ripe for exploitation by terrorists and external forces.

A significant aspect of the PTI's support base lies among Gen Z and millennials. The party's adept use of social media platforms like Twitter and TikTok has resonated with younger voters, leveraging vibrant visuals, catchy slogans and targeted messaging to galvanise support. However, this digital strategy has also fostered a confrontational political culture, often characterised by verbal abuse and online harassment of political opponents. Such tactics, while energising a segment of the youth, undermine the principles of respectful political discourse and can alienate broader segments of the population.

Historically, the PTI's protests have effectively shaped political narratives but rarely achieved tangible immediate outcomes like electoral reforms or governmental changes. The party must now critically assess the strategic logic behind continuing street demonstrations, particularly given the sensitive context of national security.

Political maturity demands prioritising national interest above partisan aspirations. The PTI, and indeed all political stakeholders, must recognise that sustainable democracy requires patience, negotiation and cooperation rather than confrontational street politics.

Ultimately, while the PTI’s protests maintain visibility and influence, history consistently shows limited tangible successes and significant risks. Given Pakistan's precarious geopolitical position, growing internal security threats and recent diplomatic gains, the PTI’s latest protests warrant serious reconsideration. Now is the time for unity and stability rather than a divisive spectacle.

The writer is a development professional working on intersectional issues in society, economics, andclimate. A former World Bank staff member, he is now managing an impact advisory consulting business out of Dubai and Islamabad.