Trump, Iran at odds over nuclear inspections: Is a peace deal still possible?

The fragile peace deal between the US and Iran has apparently hit a roadblock as President Trump and Iranian officials are found to be at odds over the issue of nuclear inspections, offering conflicting statements.

When it comes to dealing with Iran, the issues of nuclear weapons, enrichment and inspection always dominate the high-level talks. This is what is happening right now.

As part of a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump, it was mentioned that “Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. Iran and the US have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA.”

Moreover, as per the agreement that paved the way towards 60-days window for reaching final deal, both parties will discuss the issue of enrichment and other matters related to Iran’s nuclear deal “based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal.”

On Monday, the US and Iranian officials concluded the first round of high-level talks at Burgenstock in Switzerland, claiming the breakthroughs with a positive attitude. Both sides along with mediators, including Pakistan and Qatar hailed the meeting as “major progress” towards the final deal.

However, recently the officials’ claims over nuclear inspections have emerged as the biggest hurdle in Trump-Iran talks.

What’s the issue over nuclear inspections?

Iran’s nuclear program has been the bone of contention between the two countries. The IAEA reports a "near-total" loss of visibility into Iran’s nuclear sites. This includes an inability to verify the status of centrifuges, the composition of uranium stockpiles, or the activities taking place at key facilities.

Moreover, the US has always been wary of Iran’s capability of uranium enrichment. According to Arms Control Association estimates, Iran possesses approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.

While this is not yet weapons-grade as it requires 90 percent enrichment, it is considered "near-weapons grade" and poses a significant proliferation risk.

Contradictory statements from US and Iran

On Monday, Vice President JD Vance claimed that IAEA nuclear inspectors would return to Iran to ensure the country’s compliance with the preliminary agreement stipulated in the MoU.

Speaking to an Iranian state news agency, Iran foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai said Tehran has made no new commitments regarding nuclear inspectors.

As reported by Al Jazeera, Iranian officials publicly denied any such plans and commitments regarding the nuclear programme and nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including its director-general, Rafael Grossi.

According to officials, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council would decide this matter by providing the legal framework for this inspection.

In a surprising turn of events, US President Donald Trump asserted a major breakthrough in Iran’s nuclear inspections despite the persistent denials from Tehran.

On his Truth Social Post, Trump posted, “Despite their protestations and false statements to the contrary, coupled with the drumbeat of the Fake News, which is doing everything possible to make the U.S. Victory as small and insignificant as possible, Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!).”

Speaking about the advantages of these inspections, Trump said, “This will insure Nuclear Honesty,” thereby paving the way towards future negotiations.

IAEA stance

On Wednesday, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi expressed determination to eventually inspect Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites.

Grossi said, “Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.”

Can standoff over nuclear inspections derail US-Iran talks?

The possibility of derailment of talks has not been ruled out by President Trump. In the past two days, Trump repeatedly warned that in case of Iran’s unwillingness to give access to nuclear sites, the negotiations would suffer.

Trump said, “If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations! Based on this and other major concessions being made by Iran, I have agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain OPEN, with no further Naval Blockade.”

"If Iran doesn't live up to their agreement, or if they're not behaving, I will do what I have to do," Trump later told reporters.

Even some experts and analysts are sceptical of reaching the final agreement within the 60 days given the nature of the standoff over the crucial issue.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “There’s no way they’re going to get this done in 60 days. I think we’re talking about at least into the next calendar year.”

“And, to be honest with you, I would not be surprised if both Iran and the United States run out the clock. That is to say, they keep talking, they keep negotiating, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but there is no final deal even by the end of the Trump administration. That outcome would not surprise me at all.”